Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 47.98% per annum.
- GOOG price at the close of May 20, 2024 was $178.46 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 219.98% per annum.
- GOOG price at the close of May 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GOOG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 26, 2022
End date: May 20, 2024
a = 3.1527
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0576
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 47.98%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0576) – 1
= 25.91%
October 26, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y866)
= Exp(a + b × X866 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1527 + 0.0011 × 1,254 + 2 × 0.0576)
= Exp(4.6144)
= $100.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y866)
= Exp(a + b × X866 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1527 + 0.0011 × 1,254 – 2 × 0.0576)
= Exp(4.3840)
= $80.16
May 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1527 + 0.0011 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0576)
= Exp(5.2286)
= $186.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1527 + 0.0011 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0576)
= Exp(4.9982)
= $148.15
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 47.98% per annum.
- GOOG price at the close of May 20, 2024 was $178.46 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 26, 2024
End date: May 20, 2024
a = -0.6401
b = 0.0032
s = 0.0216
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0032) – 1
= 219.98%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0216) – 1
= 9.01%
February 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,199)
= Exp(a + b × X1,199 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,742 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.6401 + 0.0032 × 1,742 + 2 × 0.0216)
= Exp(4.9540)
= $141.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,199)
= Exp(a + b × X1,199 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,742 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.6401 + 0.0032 × 1,742 – 2 × 0.0216)
= Exp(4.8678)
= $130.03
May 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.6401 + 0.0032 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0216)
= Exp(5.2217)
= $185.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.6401 + 0.0032 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0216)
= Exp(5.1354)
= $169.94
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 219.98% per annum.
- GOOG price at the close of May 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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