Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 55.86% per annum.
- COST price at the close of May 16, 2024 was $793.07 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 80.21% per annum.
- COST price at the close of May 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of COST price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 1, 2023
End date: May 16, 2024
a = 4.4120
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0444
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 55.86%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0444) – 1
= 19.42%
March 1, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y953)
= Exp(a + b × X953 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,384 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4120 + 0.0012 × 1,384 + 2 × 0.0444)
= Exp(6.1834)
= $484.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y953)
= Exp(a + b × X953 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,384 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4120 + 0.0012 × 1,384 – 2 × 0.0444)
= Exp(6.0059)
= $405.83
May 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4120 + 0.0012 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0444)
= Exp(6.7208)
= $829.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4120 + 0.0012 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0444)
= Exp(6.5433)
= $694.58
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 55.86% per annum.
- COST price at the close of May 16, 2024 was $793.07 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 21, 2023
End date: May 16, 2024
a = 3.7295
b = 0.0016
s = 0.0414
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 80.21%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0414) – 1
= 17.99%
August 21, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,072)
= Exp(a + b × X1,072 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,557 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7295 + 0.0016 × 1,557 + 2 × 0.0414)
= Exp(6.3247)
= $558.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,072)
= Exp(a + b × X1,072 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,557 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7295 + 0.0016 × 1,557 – 2 × 0.0414)
= Exp(6.1592)
= $473.05
May 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7295 + 0.0016 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0414)
= Exp(6.7587)
= $861.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7295 + 0.0016 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0414)
= Exp(6.5933)
= $730.16
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 80.21% per annum.
- COST price at the close of May 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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