Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 127.77% per annum.
- QCOM price at the close of May 20, 2024 was $197.76 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,488.71% per annum.
- QCOM price at the close of May 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of QCOM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 7, 2023
End date: May 20, 2024
a = 1.1220
b = 0.0023
s = 0.0435
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0023) – 1
= 127.77%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0435) – 1
= 19.01%
September 7, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,082)
= Exp(a + b × X1,082 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,570 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1220 + 0.0023 × 1,570 + 2 × 0.0435)
= Exp(4.7498)
= $115.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,082)
= Exp(a + b × X1,082 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,570 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1220 + 0.0023 × 1,570 – 2 × 0.0435)
= Exp(4.5758)
= $97.11
May 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1220 + 0.0023 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0435)
= Exp(5.3272)
= $205.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1220 + 0.0023 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0435)
= Exp(5.1532)
= $172.98
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 127.77% per annum.
- QCOM price at the close of May 20, 2024 was $197.76 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 19, 2024
End date: May 20, 2024
a = -8.5454
b = 0.0076
s = 0.0184
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0076) – 1
= 1,488.71%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0184) – 1
= 7.66%
April 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,795 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-8.5454 + 0.0076 × 1,795 + 2 × 0.0184)
= Exp(5.0918)
= $162.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,795 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-8.5454 + 0.0076 × 1,795 – 2 × 0.0184)
= Exp(5.0180)
= $151.11
May 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-8.5454 + 0.0076 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0184)
= Exp(5.3266)
= $205.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-8.5454 + 0.0076 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0184)
= Exp(5.2529)
= $191.11
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,488.71% per annum.
- QCOM price at the close of May 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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