Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 57.64% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of May 20, 2024 was $574.38 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.30 (0.40%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 11.59% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of May 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SNPS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 16, 2022
End date: April 9, 2024
a = 4.1709
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0453
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 57.64%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0453) – 1
= 19.85%
September 16, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y838)
= Exp(a + b × X838 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,214 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1709 + 0.0012 × 1,214 + 2 × 0.0453)
= Exp(5.7752)
= $322.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y838)
= Exp(a + b × X838 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,214 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1709 + 0.0012 × 1,214 – 2 × 0.0453)
= Exp(5.5942)
= $268.85
April 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,785 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1709 + 0.0012 × 1,785 + 2 × 0.0453)
= Exp(6.4873)
= $656.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,785 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1709 + 0.0012 × 1,785 – 2 × 0.0453)
= Exp(6.3062)
= $547.94
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 57.64% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of May 20, 2024 was $574.38 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.30 (0.40%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 10, 2023
End date: May 20, 2024
a = 5.7842
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0438
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 11.59%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0438) – 1
= 19.13%
November 10, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,128)
= Exp(a + b × X1,128 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,634 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7842 + 0.0003 × 1,634 + 2 × 0.0438)
= Exp(6.3627)
= $579.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,128)
= Exp(a + b × X1,128 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,634 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7842 + 0.0003 × 1,634 – 2 × 0.0438)
= Exp(6.1877)
= $486.73
May 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7842 + 0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0438)
= Exp(6.4204)
= $614.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7842 + 0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0438)
= Exp(6.2454)
= $515.64
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 11.59% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of May 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
Check out SNPS and 1,499 other stocks on our new website