Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 83.73% per annum.
- ANET price at the close of May 16, 2024 was $320.09 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 26,882.30% per annum.
- ANET price at the close of May 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ANET price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 16, 2022
End date: May 16, 2024
a = 2.6369
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0766
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 83.73%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0766) – 1
= 35.87%
September 16, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y840)
= Exp(a + b × X840 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,218 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6369 + 0.0017 × 1,218 + 2 × 0.0766)
= Exp(4.8200)
= $123.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y840)
= Exp(a + b × X840 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,218 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6369 + 0.0017 × 1,218 – 2 × 0.0766)
= Exp(4.5135)
= $91.24
May 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6369 + 0.0017 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0766)
= Exp(5.8332)
= $341.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6369 + 0.0017 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0766)
= Exp(5.5268)
= $251.33
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 83.73% per annum.
- ANET price at the close of May 16, 2024 was $320.09 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 30, 2024
End date: May 16, 2024
a = -22.2145
b = 0.0153
s = 0.0235
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0153) – 1
= 26,882.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0235) – 1
= 9.86%
April 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,810 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-22.2145 + 0.0153 × 1,810 + 2 × 0.0235)
= Exp(5.5914)
= $268.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,810 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-22.2145 + 0.0153 × 1,810 – 2 × 0.0235)
= Exp(5.4973)
= $244.03
May 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-22.2145 + 0.0153 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0235)
= Exp(5.8367)
= $342.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-22.2145 + 0.0153 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0235)
= Exp(5.7427)
= $311.90
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 26,882.30% per annum.
- ANET price at the close of May 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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