Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 34.61% per annum.
- CI price at the close of May 16, 2024 was $339.26 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 30.01% per annum.
- CI price at the close of May 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 23, 2023
End date: May 16, 2024
a = 4.3740
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0457
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 34.61%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0457) – 1
= 20.05%
March 23, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y969)
= Exp(a + b × X969 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,406 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3740 + 0.0008 × 1,406 + 2 × 0.0457)
= Exp(5.6104)
= $273.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y969)
= Exp(a + b × X969 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,406 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3740 + 0.0008 × 1,406 – 2 × 0.0457)
= Exp(5.4276)
= $227.60
May 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3740 + 0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0457)
= Exp(5.9524)
= $384.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3740 + 0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0457)
= Exp(5.7696)
= $320.41
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 34.61% per annum.
- CI price at the close of May 16, 2024 was $339.26 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 26, 2024
End date: May 16, 2024
a = 7.6266
b = -0.0010
s = 0.0124
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -30.01%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0124) – 1
= 5.07%
March 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,222)
= Exp(a + b × X1,222 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,775 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6266 + -0.0010 × 1,775 + 2 × 0.0124)
= Exp(5.9159)
= $370.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,222)
= Exp(a + b × X1,222 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,775 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6266 + -0.0010 × 1,775 – 2 × 0.0124)
= Exp(5.8664)
= $352.98
May 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6266 + -0.0010 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0124)
= Exp(5.8660)
= $352.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6266 + -0.0010 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0124)
= Exp(5.8165)
= $335.81
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 30.01% per annum.
- CI price at the close of May 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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