Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 79.65% per annum.
- RTX price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $104.18 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 115.92% per annum.
- RTX price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of RTX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 19, 2023
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 1.7200
b = 0.0016
s = 0.0247
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 79.65%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0247) – 1
= 10.39%
September 19, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,091)
= Exp(a + b × X1,091 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,583 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7200 + 0.0016 × 1,583 + 2 × 0.0247)
= Exp(4.3101)
= $74.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,091)
= Exp(a + b × X1,091 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,583 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7200 + 0.0016 × 1,583 – 2 × 0.0247)
= Exp(4.2113)
= $67.44
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7200 + 0.0016 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0247)
= Exp(4.6969)
= $109.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7200 + 0.0016 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0247)
= Exp(4.5981)
= $99.29
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 79.65% per annum.
- RTX price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $104.18 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 21, 2024
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 0.8169
b = 0.0021
s = 0.0148
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0021) – 1
= 115.92%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0148) – 1
= 6.10%
February 21, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,197)
= Exp(a + b × X1,197 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,738 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8169 + 0.0021 × 1,738 + 2 × 0.0148)
= Exp(4.5118)
= $91.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,197)
= Exp(a + b × X1,197 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,738 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8169 + 0.0021 × 1,738 – 2 × 0.0148)
= Exp(4.4525)
= $85.84
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8169 + 0.0021 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0148)
= Exp(4.6931)
= $109.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8169 + 0.0021 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0148)
= Exp(4.6339)
= $102.91
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 115.92% per annum.
- RTX price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
Check out RTX and 1,499 other stocks on our new website