Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 107.09% per annum.
- UBER price at the close of May 20, 2024 was $64.65 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.85 (2.79%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 63.14% per annum.
- UBER price at the close of May 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UBER price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 26, 2022
End date: May 7, 2024
a = 0.7359
b = 0.0020
s = 0.0903
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0020) – 1
= 107.09%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0903) – 1
= 43.48%
September 26, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y844)
= Exp(a + b × X844 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,224 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7359 + 0.0020 × 1,224 + 2 × 0.0903)
= Exp(3.3576)
= $28.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y844)
= Exp(a + b × X844 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,224 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7359 + 0.0020 × 1,224 – 2 × 0.0903)
= Exp(2.9966)
= $20.02
May 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7359 + 0.0020 × 1,813 + 2 × 0.0903)
= Exp(4.5323)
= $92.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7359 + 0.0020 × 1,813 – 2 × 0.0903)
= Exp(4.1713)
= $64.80
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 107.09% per annum.
- UBER price at the close of May 20, 2024 was $64.65 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.85 (2.79%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 29, 2024
End date: May 20, 2024
a = 9.1778
b = -0.0027
s = 0.0237
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0027) – 1
= -63.14%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0237) – 1
= 9.94%
February 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,202)
= Exp(a + b × X1,202 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,745 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.1778 + -0.0027 × 1,745 + 2 × 0.0237)
= Exp(4.4537)
= $85.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,202)
= Exp(a + b × X1,202 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,745 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.1778 + -0.0027 × 1,745 – 2 × 0.0237)
= Exp(4.3589)
= $78.17
May 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.1778 + -0.0027 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0237)
= Exp(4.2322)
= $68.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.1778 + -0.0027 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0237)
= Exp(4.1375)
= $62.64
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 63.14% per annum.
- UBER price at the close of May 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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