Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 105.95% per annum.
- X price at the close of July 28, 2023 was $24.67 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $28.74 (53.81%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 0.07% per annum.
- X price at the close of July 28, 2023 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of X price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 23, 2019
End date: May 6, 2022
a = 0.8782
b = 0.0020
s = 0.2553
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0020) – 1
= 105.95%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2553) – 1
= 177.67%
December 23, 2019 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y353)
= Exp(a + b × X353 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 511 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8782 + 0.0020 × 511 + 2 × 0.2553)
= Exp(2.4003)
= $11.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y353)
= Exp(a + b × X353 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 511 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8782 + 0.0020 × 511 – 2 × 0.2553)
= Exp(1.3791)
= $3.97
May 6, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y950)
= Exp(a + b × X950 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,376 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8782 + 0.0020 × 1,376 + 2 × 0.2553)
= Exp(4.1125)
= $61.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y950)
= Exp(a + b × X950 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,376 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8782 + 0.0020 × 1,376 – 2 × 0.2553)
= Exp(3.0913)
= $22.00
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 105.95% per annum.
- X price at the close of July 28, 2023 was $24.67 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $28.74 (53.81%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 8, 2021
End date: July 28, 2023
a = 3.1979
b = 0.0000
s = 0.1493
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.07%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1493) – 1
= 81.70%
March 8, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y655)
= Exp(a + b × X655 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 952 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1979 + 0.0000 × 952 + 2 × 0.1493)
= Exp(3.4945)
= $32.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y655)
= Exp(a + b × X655 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 952 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1979 + 0.0000 × 952 – 2 × 0.1493)
= Exp(2.8973)
= $18.13
July 28, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1979 + 0.0000 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1493)
= Exp(3.4927)
= $32.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1979 + 0.0000 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1493)
= Exp(2.8955)
= $18.09
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 0.07% per annum.
- X price at the close of July 28, 2023 was inside the secondary price channel.
Check current X price trends.
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