Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 144.00% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $3,213.43 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 11.51% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CMG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 21, 2023
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 3.6211
b = 0.0024
s = 0.0325
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0024) – 1
= 144.00%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0325) – 1
= 13.90%
September 21, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,093)
= Exp(a + b × X1,093 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,585 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6211 + 0.0024 × 1,585 + 2 × 0.0325)
= Exp(7.5597)
= $1,919.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,093)
= Exp(a + b × X1,093 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,585 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6211 + 0.0024 × 1,585 – 2 × 0.0325)
= Exp(7.4295)
= $1,685.03
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6211 + 0.0024 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0325)
= Exp(8.1438)
= $3,441.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6211 + 0.0024 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0325)
= Exp(8.0136)
= $3,021.85
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 144.00% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $3,213.43 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 26, 2024
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 7.5244
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0099
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 11.51%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0099) – 1
= 4.02%
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,803 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5244 + 0.0003 × 1,803 + 2 × 0.0099)
= Exp(8.0821)
= $3,236.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,803 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5244 + 0.0003 × 1,803 – 2 × 0.0099)
= Exp(8.0427)
= $3,110.98
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5244 + 0.0003 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0099)
= Exp(8.0884)
= $3,256.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5244 + 0.0003 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0099)
= Exp(8.0490)
= $3,130.53
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 11.51% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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