Stock Analysis on Net
Stock Analysis on Net

LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (NYSE:LYB)

$22.49

This company has been moved to the archive! The financial data has not been updated since August 2, 2019.

Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Microsoft Excel

In discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation techniques the value of the stock is estimated based upon present value of some measure of cash flow. Dividends are the cleanest and most straightforward measure of cash flow because these are clearly cash flows that go directly to the investor.

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Intrinsic Stock Value (Valuation Summary)

LyondellBasell Industries N.V., dividends per share (DPS) forecast

US$

Microsoft Excel
Year Value DPSt or Terminal value (TVt) Calculation Present value at
0 DPS01
1 DPS1 = × (1 + )
2 DPS2 = × (1 + )
3 DPS3 = × (1 + )
4 DPS4 = × (1 + )
5 DPS5 = × (1 + )
5 Terminal value (TV5) = × (1 + ) ÷ ( – )
Intrinsic value of LyondellBasell Industries N.V. common stock (per share)
Current share price

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2018-12-31).

1 DPS0 = Sum of the last year dividends per share of LyondellBasell Industries N.V. common stock. See details »

Disclaimer!
Valuation is based on standard assumptions. There may exist specific factors relevant to stock value and omitted here. In such a case, the real stock value may differ significantly form the estimated. If you want to use the estimated intrinsic stock value in investment decision making process, do so at your own risk.

Required Rate of Return (r)

Microsoft Excel
Assumptions
Rate of return on LT Treasury Composite1 RF
Expected rate of return on market portfolio2 E(RM)
Systematic risk of LyondellBasell Industries N.V. common stock βLYB
 
Required rate of return on LyondellBasell Industries N.V. common stock3 rLYB

1 Unweighted average of bid yields on all outstanding fixed-coupon U.S. Treasury bonds neither due or callable in less than 10 years (risk-free rate of return proxy).

2 See details »

3 rLYB = RF + βLYB [E(RM) – RF]
= + [ – ]
=

Dividend Growth Rate (g)

Dividend growth rate (g) implied by PRAT model

LyondellBasell Industries N.V., PRAT model

Microsoft Excel
Average Dec 31, 2018 Dec 31, 2017 Dec 31, 2016 Dec 31, 2015 Dec 31, 2014
Selected Financial Data (US$ in millions)
Dividends, common stock
Net income attributable to the Company shareholders
Sales and other operating revenues
Total assets
Total Company share of stockholders’ equity
Financial Ratios
Retention rate1
Profit margin2
Asset turnover3
Financial leverage4
Averages
Retention rate
Profit margin
Asset turnover
Financial leverage
 
Dividend growth rate (g)5

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2018-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2017-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2016-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2015-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2014-12-31).

2018 Calculations

1 Retention rate = (Net income attributable to the Company shareholders – Dividends, common stock) ÷ Net income attributable to the Company shareholders
= ( – ) ÷
=

2 Profit margin = 100 × Net income attributable to the Company shareholders ÷ Sales and other operating revenues
= 100 × ÷
=

3 Asset turnover = Sales and other operating revenues ÷ Total assets
= ÷
=

4 Financial leverage = Total assets ÷ Total Company share of stockholders’ equity
= ÷
=

5 g = Retention rate × Profit margin × Asset turnover × Financial leverage
= × × ×
=

Dividend growth rate (g) implied by Gordon growth model

g = 100 × (P0 × r – D0) ÷ (P0 + D0)
= 100 × ( × – ) ÷ ( + )
=

where:
P0 = current price of share of LyondellBasell Industries N.V. common stock
D0 = the last year dividends per share of LyondellBasell Industries N.V. common stock
r = required rate of return on LyondellBasell Industries N.V. common stock

Dividend growth rate (g) forecast

LyondellBasell Industries N.V., H-model

Microsoft Excel
Year Value gt
1 g1
2 g2
3 g3
4 g4
5 and thereafter g5

where:
g1 is implied by PRAT model
g5 is implied by Gordon growth model
g2, g3 and g4 are calculated using linear interpoltion between g1 and g5

Calculations

g2 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= + ( – ) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
=

g3 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= + ( – ) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
=

g4 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= + ( – ) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
=