Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 92.83% per annum.
- FANG price at the close of November 8, 2022 was $163.55 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 25.15% per annum.
- FANG price at the close of November 8, 2022 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FANG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 9, 2020
End date: November 8, 2022
a = 1.9104
b = 0.0018
s = 0.2029
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 92.83%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2029) – 1
= 125.16%
March 9, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y583)
= Exp(a + b × X583 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 851 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9104 + 0.0018 × 851 + 2 × 0.2029)
= Exp(3.8473)
= $46.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y583)
= Exp(a + b × X583 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 851 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9104 + 0.0018 × 851 – 2 × 0.2029)
= Exp(3.0356)
= $20.81
November 8, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9104 + 0.0018 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.2029)
= Exp(5.5996)
= $270.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9104 + 0.0018 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.2029)
= Exp(4.7879)
= $120.05
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 92.83% per annum.
- FANG price at the close of November 8, 2022 was $163.55 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 4, 2021
End date: November 8, 2022
a = 3.8415
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0890
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 25.15%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0890) – 1
= 42.78%
October 4, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y980)
= Exp(a + b × X980 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,425 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8415 + 0.0006 × 1,425 + 2 × 0.0890)
= Exp(4.8952)
= $133.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y980)
= Exp(a + b × X980 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,425 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8415 + 0.0006 × 1,425 – 2 × 0.0890)
= Exp(4.5391)
= $93.61
November 8, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8415 + 0.0006 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0890)
= Exp(5.1411)
= $170.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8415 + 0.0006 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0890)
= Exp(4.7849)
= $119.69
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 25.15% per annum.
- FANG price at the close of November 8, 2022 was inside the secondary price channel.
Check current FANG price trends.
Visit our new 1,500-company website