Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 0.07% per annum.
- CVX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $159.60 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 85.54% per annum.
- CVX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CVX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 2, 2022
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 5.0052
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0584
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 0.07%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0584) – 1
= 26.33%
March 2, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y573)
= Exp(a + b × X573 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 833 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0052 + 0.0000 × 833 + 2 × 0.0584)
= Exp(5.1236)
= $167.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y573)
= Exp(a + b × X573 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 833 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0052 + 0.0000 × 833 – 2 × 0.0584)
= Exp(4.8899)
= $132.94
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0052 + 0.0000 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0584)
= Exp(5.1255)
= $168.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0052 + 0.0000 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0584)
= Exp(4.8917)
= $133.19
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 0.07% per annum.
- CVX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $159.60 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 4, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 1.9678
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0168
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 85.54%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0168) – 1
= 6.97%
September 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,203)
= Exp(a + b × X1,203 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,750 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9678 + 0.0017 × 1,750 + 2 × 0.0168)
= Exp(4.9651)
= $143.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,203)
= Exp(a + b × X1,203 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,750 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9678 + 0.0017 × 1,750 – 2 × 0.0168)
= Exp(4.8977)
= $133.98
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9678 + 0.0017 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0168)
= Exp(5.0938)
= $163.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9678 + 0.0017 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0168)
= Exp(5.0264)
= $152.39
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 85.54% per annum.
- CVX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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