Stock Analysis on Net

Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE:XOM)

Stock Price Trends


Summary

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 6.14% per annum.
  • XOM price at the close of April 8, 2025 was $100.77 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.10 (2.04%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 3.08% per annum.
  • XOM price at the close of April 8, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.38 (2.31%).
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of XOM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: October 5, 2022
End date: April 8, 2025

a = 4.4398

b = 0.0002

s = 0.0522

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 6.14%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0522) – 1
= 23.20%

October 5, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y627)
= Exp(a + b × X627 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 909 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4398 + 0.0002 × 909 + 2 × 0.0522)
= Exp(4.6925)
= $109.13

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y627)
= Exp(a + b × X627 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 909 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4398 + 0.0002 × 909 – 2 × 0.0522)
= Exp(4.4839)
= $88.58

April 8, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4398 + 0.0002 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0522)
= Exp(4.8421)
= $126.74

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4398 + 0.0002 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0522)
= Exp(4.6335)
= $102.87

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 6.14% per annum.
  • XOM price at the close of April 8, 2025 was $100.77 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.10 (2.04%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 28, 2024
End date: April 8, 2025

a = 4.8660

b = -0.0001

s = 0.0367

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -3.08%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0367) – 1
= 15.80%

March 28, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y998)
= Exp(a + b × X998 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,449 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8660 + -0.0001 × 1,449 + 2 × 0.0367)
= Exp(4.8151)
= $123.36

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y998)
= Exp(a + b × X998 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,449 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8660 + -0.0001 × 1,449 – 2 × 0.0367)
= Exp(4.6685)
= $106.53

April 8, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8660 + -0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0367)
= Exp(4.7829)
= $119.45

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8660 + -0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0367)
= Exp(4.6362)
= $103.15

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 3.08% per annum.
  • XOM price at the close of April 8, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.38 (2.31%).
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