Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 84.35% per annum.
- ALB price at the close of May 3, 2023 was $172.91 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 96.26% per annum.
- ALB price at the close of May 3, 2023 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ALB price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 26, 2023
End date: May 3, 2023
a = 14.4592
b = -0.0051
s = 0.0397
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0051) – 1
= -84.35%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0397) – 1
= 17.19%
January 26, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,190)
= Exp(a + b × X1,190 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,728 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.4592 + -0.0051 × 1,728 + 2 × 0.0397)
= Exp(5.7580)
= $316.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,190)
= Exp(a + b × X1,190 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,728 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.4592 + -0.0051 × 1,728 – 2 × 0.0397)
= Exp(5.5994)
= $270.27
May 3, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.4592 + -0.0051 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0397)
= Exp(5.2652)
= $193.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.4592 + -0.0051 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0397)
= Exp(5.1065)
= $165.10
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 84.35% per annum.
- ALB price at the close of May 3, 2023 was $172.91 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 13, 2023
End date: May 3, 2023
a = 21.5742
b = -0.0090
s = 0.0380
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0090) – 1
= -96.26%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0380) – 1
= 16.41%
April 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,805 + 2 × s)
= Exp(21.5742 + -0.0090 × 1,805 + 2 × 0.0380)
= Exp(5.4040)
= $222.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,805 – 2 × s)
= Exp(21.5742 + -0.0090 × 1,805 – 2 × 0.0380)
= Exp(5.2521)
= $190.97
May 3, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(21.5742 + -0.0090 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0380)
= Exp(5.2240)
= $185.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(21.5742 + -0.0090 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0380)
= Exp(5.0721)
= $159.51
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 96.26% per annum.
- ALB price at the close of May 3, 2023 was inside the secondary price channel.
Check current ALB price trends.
Visit our new 1,500-company website