Stock Analysis on Net
Stock Analysis on Net

Apache Corp. (NYSE:APA)

$22.49

This company has been moved to the archive! The financial data has not been updated since August 4, 2016.

Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Microsoft Excel

In discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation techniques the value of the stock is estimated based upon present value of some measure of cash flow. Dividends are the cleanest and most straightforward measure of cash flow because these are clearly cash flows that go directly to the investor.

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Intrinsic Stock Value (Valuation Summary)

Apache Corp., dividends per share (DPS) forecast

US$

Microsoft Excel
Year Value DPSt or Terminal value (TVt) Calculation Present value at
0 DPS01
1 DPS1 = × (1 + )
2 DPS2 = × (1 + )
3 DPS3 = × (1 + )
4 DPS4 = × (1 + )
5 DPS5 = × (1 + )
5 Terminal value (TV5) = × (1 + ) ÷ ( – )
Intrinsic value of Apache Corp. common stock (per share)
Current share price

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2015-12-31).

1 DPS0 = Sum of the last year dividends per share of Apache Corp. common stock. See details »

Disclaimer!
Valuation is based on standard assumptions. There may exist specific factors relevant to stock value and omitted here. In such a case, the real stock value may differ significantly form the estimated. If you want to use the estimated intrinsic stock value in investment decision making process, do so at your own risk.

Required Rate of Return (r)

Microsoft Excel
Assumptions
Rate of return on LT Treasury Composite1 RF
Expected rate of return on market portfolio2 E(RM)
Systematic risk of Apache Corp. common stock βAPA
 
Required rate of return on Apache Corp. common stock3 rAPA

1 Unweighted average of bid yields on all outstanding fixed-coupon U.S. Treasury bonds neither due or callable in less than 10 years (risk-free rate of return proxy).

2 See details »

3 rAPA = RF + βAPA [E(RM) – RF]
= + [ – ]
=

Dividend Growth Rate (g)

Dividend growth rate (g) implied by PRAT model

Apache Corp., PRAT model

Microsoft Excel
Average Dec 31, 2015 Dec 31, 2014 Dec 31, 2013 Dec 31, 2012 Dec 31, 2011
Selected Financial Data (US$ in millions)
Common dividends
Cash dividends, preferred
Net income (loss) attributable to Apache shareholders
Oil and gas production revenues
Total assets
Total Apache shareholders’ equity
Financial Ratios
Retention rate1
Profit margin2
Asset turnover3
Financial leverage4
Averages
Retention rate
Profit margin
Asset turnover
Financial leverage
 
Dividend growth rate (g)5

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2015-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2014-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2013-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2012-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2011-12-31).

2015 Calculations

1 Retention rate = (Net income (loss) attributable to Apache shareholders – Common dividends – Cash dividends, preferred) ÷ (Net income (loss) attributable to Apache shareholders – Cash dividends, preferred)
= ( – – ) ÷ ( – )
=

2 Profit margin = 100 × (Net income (loss) attributable to Apache shareholders – Cash dividends, preferred) ÷ Oil and gas production revenues
= 100 × ( – ) ÷
=

3 Asset turnover = Oil and gas production revenues ÷ Total assets
= ÷
=

4 Financial leverage = Total assets ÷ Total Apache shareholders’ equity
= ÷
=

5 g = Retention rate × Profit margin × Asset turnover × Financial leverage
= × × ×
=

Dividend growth rate (g) implied by Gordon growth model

g = 100 × (P0 × r – D0) ÷ (P0 + D0)
= 100 × ( × – ) ÷ ( + )
=

where:
P0 = current price of share of Apache Corp. common stock
D0 = the last year dividends per share of Apache Corp. common stock
r = required rate of return on Apache Corp. common stock

Dividend growth rate (g) forecast

Apache Corp., H-model

Microsoft Excel
Year Value gt
1 g1
2 g2
3 g3
4 g4
5 and thereafter g5

where:
g1 is implied by PRAT model
g5 is implied by Gordon growth model
g2, g3 and g4 are calculated using linear interpoltion between g1 and g5

Calculations

g2 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= + ( – ) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
=

g3 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= + ( – ) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
=

g4 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= + ( – ) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
=