Stock Analysis on Net
Stock Analysis on Net

Builders FirstSource Inc. (NYSE:BLDR)

This company has been moved to the archive! The financial data has not been updated since November 1, 2023.

Present Value of Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) 

Microsoft Excel

In discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation techniques the value of the stock is estimated based upon present value of some measure of cash flow. Free cash flow to equity (FCFE) is generally described as cash flows available to the equity holder after payments to debt holders and after allowing for expenditures to maintain the company asset base.

Intrinsic Stock Value (Valuation Summary)

Builders FirstSource Inc., free cash flow to equity (FCFE) forecast

US$ in thousands, except per share data

Microsoft Excel
Year Value FCFEt or Terminal value (TVt) Calculation Present value at 22.62%
01 FCFE0 3,293,575
1 FCFE1 4,755,017 = 3,293,575 × (1 + 44.37%) 3,877,956
2 FCFE2 6,336,351 = 4,755,017 × (1 + 33.26%) 4,214,450
3 FCFE3 7,739,203 = 6,336,351 × (1 + 22.14%) 4,198,061
4 FCFE4 8,592,325 = 7,739,203 × (1 + 11.02%) 3,801,142
5 FCFE5 8,584,335 = 8,592,325 × (1 + -0.09%) 3,097,140
5 Terminal value (TV5) 37,765,381 = 8,584,335 × (1 + -0.09%) ÷ (22.62% – -0.09%) 13,625,363
Intrinsic value of Builders FirstSource Inc. common stock 32,814,113
 
Intrinsic value of Builders FirstSource Inc. common stock (per share) $266.03
Current share price $117.47

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31).

1 See details »

Disclaimer!
Valuation is based on standard assumptions. There may exist specific factors relevant to stock value and omitted here. In such a case, the real stock value may differ significantly form the estimated. If you want to use the estimated intrinsic stock value in investment decision making process, do so at your own risk.

Required Rate of Return (r)

Microsoft Excel
Assumptions
Rate of return on LT Treasury Composite1 RF 4.79%
Expected rate of return on market portfolio2 E(RM) 13.79%
Systematic risk of Builders FirstSource Inc. common stock βBLDR 1.98
 
Required rate of return on Builders FirstSource Inc. common stock3 rBLDR 22.62%

1 Unweighted average of bid yields on all outstanding fixed-coupon U.S. Treasury bonds neither due or callable in less than 10 years (risk-free rate of return proxy).

2 See details »

3 rBLDR = RF + βBLDR [E(RM) – RF]
= 4.79% + 1.98 [13.79% – 4.79%]
= 22.62%

FCFE Growth Rate (g)

FCFE growth rate (g) implied by PRAT model

Builders FirstSource Inc., PRAT model

Microsoft Excel
Average Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019 Dec 31, 2018
Selected Financial Data (US$ in thousands)
Net income 2,749,369 1,725,416 313,537 221,809 205,191
Net sales 22,726,418 19,893,856 8,558,874 7,280,431 7,724,771
Total assets 10,595,160 10,714,343 4,173,671 3,249,490 2,932,309
Stockholders’ equity 4,962,566 4,802,481 1,152,783 824,953 596,338
Financial Ratios
Retention rate1 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Profit margin2 12.10% 8.67% 3.66% 3.05% 2.66%
Asset turnover3 2.14 1.86 2.05 2.24 2.63
Financial leverage4 2.14 2.23 3.62 3.94 4.92
Averages
Retention rate 1.00
Profit margin 6.03%
Asset turnover 2.19
Financial leverage 3.37
 
FCFE growth rate (g)5 44.37%

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2018-12-31).

2022 Calculations

1 Company does not pay dividends

2 Profit margin = 100 × Net income ÷ Net sales
= 100 × 2,749,369 ÷ 22,726,418
= 12.10%

3 Asset turnover = Net sales ÷ Total assets
= 22,726,418 ÷ 10,595,160
= 2.14

4 Financial leverage = Total assets ÷ Stockholders’ equity
= 10,595,160 ÷ 4,962,566
= 2.14

5 g = Retention rate × Profit margin × Asset turnover × Financial leverage
= 1.00 × 6.03% × 2.19 × 3.37
= 44.37%

FCFE growth rate (g) implied by single-stage model

g = 100 × (Equity market value0 × r – FCFE0) ÷ (Equity market value0 + FCFE0)
= 100 × (14,489,546 × 22.62% – 3,293,575) ÷ (14,489,546 + 3,293,575)
= -0.09%

where:
Equity market value0 = current market value of Builders FirstSource Inc. common stock (US$ in thousands)
FCFE0 = the last year Builders FirstSource Inc. free cash flow to equity (US$ in thousands)
r = required rate of return on Builders FirstSource Inc. common stock

FCFE growth rate (g) forecast

Builders FirstSource Inc., H-model

Microsoft Excel
Year Value gt
1 g1 44.37%
2 g2 33.26%
3 g3 22.14%
4 g4 11.02%
5 and thereafter g5 -0.09%

where:
g1 is implied by PRAT model
g5 is implied by single-stage model
g2, g3 and g4 are calculated using linear interpoltion between g1 and g5

Calculations

g2 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 44.37% + (-0.09% – 44.37%) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 33.26%

g3 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 44.37% + (-0.09% – 44.37%) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 22.14%

g4 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 44.37% + (-0.09% – 44.37%) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 11.02%