Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 73.43% per annum.
- BLDR price at the close of November 1, 2023 was $117.47 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 82.63% per annum.
- BLDR price at the close of November 1, 2023 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $5.77 (5.17%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BLDR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 31, 2023
End date: October 31, 2023
a = 11.3163
b = -0.0036
s = 0.0393
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0036) – 1
= -73.43%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0393) – 1
= 17.04%
July 31, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,190)
= Exp(a + b × X1,190 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,732 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.3163 + -0.0036 × 1,732 + 2 × 0.0393)
= Exp(5.1050)
= $164.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,190)
= Exp(a + b × X1,190 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,732 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.3163 + -0.0036 × 1,732 – 2 × 0.0393)
= Exp(4.9477)
= $140.85
October 31, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.3163 + -0.0036 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0393)
= Exp(4.7709)
= $118.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.3163 + -0.0036 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0393)
= Exp(4.6136)
= $100.85
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 73.43% per annum.
- BLDR price at the close of November 1, 2023 was $117.47 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 30, 2023
End date: October 31, 2023
a = 13.4117
b = -0.0048
s = 0.0276
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0048) – 1
= -82.63%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0276) – 1
= 11.66%
August 30, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,762 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.4117 + -0.0048 × 1,762 + 2 × 0.0276)
= Exp(5.0179)
= $151.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,762 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.4117 + -0.0048 × 1,762 – 2 × 0.0276)
= Exp(4.9076)
= $135.32
October 31, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.4117 + -0.0048 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0276)
= Exp(4.7206)
= $112.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.4117 + -0.0048 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0276)
= Exp(4.6103)
= $100.52
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 82.63% per annum.
- BLDR price at the close of November 1, 2023 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $5.77 (5.17%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Check current BLDR price trends.
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