Stock Analysis on Net

Ecolab Inc. (NYSE:ECL)

This company has been moved to the archive! The financial data has not been updated since February 25, 2022.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.


Summary

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 6.33% per annum.
  • ECL price at the close of February 25, 2022 was $180.30 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $13.63 (7.03%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 86.71% per annum.
  • ECL price at the close of February 25, 2022 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ECL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 28, 2019
End date: February 25, 2022

a = 5.0947

b = 0.0002

s = 0.0671

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 6.33%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0671) – 1
= 30.76%

March 28, 2019 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y524)
= Exp(a + b × X524 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 759 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0947 + 0.0002 × 759 + 2 × 0.0671)
= Exp(5.3565)
= $211.99

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y524)
= Exp(a + b × X524 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 759 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0947 + 0.0002 × 759 – 2 × 0.0671)
= Exp(5.0883)
= $162.12

February 25, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,259)
= Exp(a + b × X1,259 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0947 + 0.0002 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0671)
= Exp(5.5357)
= $253.59

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,259)
= Exp(a + b × X1,259 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0947 + 0.0002 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0671)
= Exp(5.2675)
= $193.93

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 6.33% per annum.
  • ECL price at the close of February 25, 2022 was $180.30 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $13.63 (7.03%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: December 27, 2021
End date: February 25, 2022

a = 15.2222

b = -0.0055

s = 0.0343

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0055) – 1
= -86.71%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0343) – 1
= 14.72%

December 27, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,217)
= Exp(a + b × X1,217 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,764 + 2 × s)
= Exp(15.2222 + -0.0055 × 1,764 + 2 × 0.0343)
= Exp(5.5386)
= $254.31

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,217)
= Exp(a + b × X1,217 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,764 – 2 × s)
= Exp(15.2222 + -0.0055 × 1,764 – 2 × 0.0343)
= Exp(5.4012)
= $221.67

February 25, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,259)
= Exp(a + b × X1,259 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(15.2222 + -0.0055 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0343)
= Exp(5.2068)
= $182.52

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,259)
= Exp(a + b × X1,259 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(15.2222 + -0.0055 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0343)
= Exp(5.0695)
= $159.09

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 86.71% per annum.
  • ECL price at the close of February 25, 2022 was inside the secondary price channel.
Stock Price Trends

Check current ECL price trends.

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