Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 38.03% per annum.
- LOW price at the close of October 19, 2026 was $195.92 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 61.82% per annum.
- LOW price at the close of October 19, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $4.87 (2.55%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LOW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 9, 2026
End date: October 19, 2026
a = 5.8649
b = -0.0013
s = 0.0436
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -38.03%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0436) – 1
= 19.04%
January 9, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y139)
= Exp(a + b × X139 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 200 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8649 + -0.0013 × 200 + 2 × 0.0436)
= Exp(5.6899)
= $295.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y139)
= Exp(a + b × X139 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 200 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8649 + -0.0013 × 200 – 2 × 0.0436)
= Exp(5.5156)
= $248.54
October 19, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y333)
= Exp(a + b × X333 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 483 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8649 + -0.0013 × 483 + 2 × 0.0436)
= Exp(5.3189)
= $204.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y333)
= Exp(a + b × X333 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 483 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8649 + -0.0013 × 483 – 2 × 0.0436)
= Exp(5.1446)
= $171.51
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 38.03% per annum.
- LOW price at the close of October 19, 2026 was $195.92 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 4, 2026
End date: October 19, 2026
a = 6.4726
b = -0.0026
s = 0.0271
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0026) – 1
= -61.82%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0271) – 1
= 11.45%
August 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y280)
= Exp(a + b × X280 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 407 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4726 + -0.0026 × 407 + 2 × 0.0271)
= Exp(5.4531)
= $233.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y280)
= Exp(a + b × X280 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 407 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4726 + -0.0026 × 407 – 2 × 0.0271)
= Exp(5.3447)
= $209.48
October 19, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y333)
= Exp(a + b × X333 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 483 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4726 + -0.0026 × 483 + 2 × 0.0271)
= Exp(5.2526)
= $191.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y333)
= Exp(a + b × X333 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 483 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4726 + -0.0026 × 483 – 2 × 0.0271)
= Exp(5.1441)
= $171.42
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 61.82% per annum.
- LOW price at the close of October 19, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $4.87 (2.55%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.