Stock Analysis on Net

Lowe’s Cos. Inc. (NYSE:LOW)

Stock Price Trends


Summary

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 28.04% per annum.
  • LOW price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $233.23 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 59.14% per annum.
  • LOW price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LOW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 30, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025

a = 7.1060

b = -0.0009

s = 0.0322

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -28.04%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0322) – 1
= 13.76%

September 30, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,131)
= Exp(a + b × X1,131 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,643 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1060 + -0.0009 × 1,643 + 2 × 0.0322)
= Exp(5.6894)
= $295.72

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,131)
= Exp(a + b × X1,131 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,643 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1060 + -0.0009 × 1,643 – 2 × 0.0322)
= Exp(5.5605)
= $259.95

March 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1060 + -0.0009 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0322)
= Exp(5.5254)
= $250.98

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1060 + -0.0009 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0322)
= Exp(5.3964)
= $220.62

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 28.04% per annum.
  • LOW price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $233.23 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 21, 2025
End date: March 31, 2025

a = 9.8885

b = -0.0025

s = 0.0207

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0025) – 1
= -59.14%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0207) – 1
= 8.65%

January 21, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,207)
= Exp(a + b × X1,207 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,756 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8885 + -0.0025 × 1,756 + 2 × 0.0207)
= Exp(5.6242)
= $277.06

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,207)
= Exp(a + b × X1,207 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,756 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8885 + -0.0025 × 1,756 – 2 × 0.0207)
= Exp(5.5413)
= $255.01

March 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8885 + -0.0025 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0207)
= Exp(5.4551)
= $233.94

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8885 + -0.0025 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0207)
= Exp(5.3721)
= $215.32

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 59.14% per annum.
  • LOW price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
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