Stock Analysis on Net

Lowe’s Cos. Inc. (NYSE:LOW)

$24.99

Economic Value Added (EVA)

Microsoft Excel

EVA is registered trademark of Stern Stewart.

Economic value added or economic profit is the difference between revenues and costs,where costs include not only expenses, but also cost of capital.

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Economic Profit

Lowe’s Cos. Inc., economic profit calculation

US$ in millions

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Jan 31, 2025 Feb 2, 2024 Feb 3, 2023 Jan 28, 2022 Jan 29, 2021 Jan 31, 2020
Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT)1
Cost of capital2
Invested capital3
 
Economic profit4

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2025-01-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2024-02-02), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-02-03), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-01-28), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-01-29), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-01-31).

1 NOPAT. See details »

2 Cost of capital. See details »

3 Invested capital. See details »

4 2025 Calculation
Economic profit = NOPAT – Cost of capital × Invested capital
= × =


Analysis of the annual financial data reveals distinct trends in profitability, capital efficiency, and economic value generation over the six-year period.

Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT)
NOPAT showed a generally positive trajectory from 2020 through 2025, starting at 5,097 million US dollars in 2020 and peaking at 9,827 million in 2022. However, there was a noticeable decline in 2023 to 7,020 million, followed by a recovery in 2024 to 8,789 million, before slightly decreasing again in 2025 to 8,137 million. This pattern indicates volatility in operating profitability within the examined timeframe.
Cost of Capital
The cost of capital experienced moderate fluctuations, increasing from 11.68% in 2020 to a peak of 13.79% in 2022. Subsequently, it decreased slightly to 12.96% in 2023, then rose again in 2024 to 13.39%, and slightly declined to 13.24% in 2025. These changes suggest variations in capital market conditions or company risk profile impacting the weighted average cost of capital.
Invested Capital
Invested capital started at 26,717 million US dollars in 2020 and showed a general trend of slight decline until 2023, reaching 24,710 million. It then experienced a gradual increase, rising to 25,913 million in 2024 and 26,276 million in 2025. The fluctuations indicate adjustments in asset base or capital investment strategies over time, with a reduction phase followed by a period of reinvestment or growth.
Economic Profit
Economic profit, a measure of value creation above the cost of capital, demonstrated a strong upward trend from 1,977 million US dollars in 2020 to a high of 6,200 million in 2022. Despite a decline to 3,817 million in 2023, economic profit rebounded to 5,318 million in 2024 before decreasing moderately to 4,658 million in 2025. This trend parallels the fluctuations in NOPAT and cost of capital, highlighting the company's varying efficiency in generating returns above its capital costs.

Net Operating Profit after Taxes (NOPAT)

Lowe’s Cos. Inc., NOPAT calculation

US$ in millions

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Jan 31, 2025 Feb 2, 2024 Feb 3, 2023 Jan 28, 2022 Jan 29, 2021 Jan 31, 2020
Net earnings
Deferred income tax expense (benefit)1
Increase (decrease) in deferred revenue2
Increase (decrease) in equity equivalents3
Interest expense, net of amount capitalized
Interest expense, operating lease liability4
Adjusted interest expense, net of amount capitalized
Tax benefit of interest expense, net of amount capitalized5
Adjusted interest expense, net of amount capitalized, after taxes6
Interest income
Investment income, before taxes
Tax expense (benefit) of investment income7
Investment income, after taxes8
Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT)

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2025-01-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2024-02-02), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-02-03), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-01-28), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-01-29), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-01-31).

1 Elimination of deferred tax expense. See details »

2 Addition of increase (decrease) in deferred revenue.

3 Addition of increase (decrease) in equity equivalents to net earnings.

4 2025 Calculation
Interest expense on capitalized operating leases = Operating lease liability × Discount rate
= × =

5 2025 Calculation
Tax benefit of interest expense, net of amount capitalized = Adjusted interest expense, net of amount capitalized × Statutory income tax rate
= × 21.00% =

6 Addition of after taxes interest expense to net earnings.

7 2025 Calculation
Tax expense (benefit) of investment income = Investment income, before tax × Statutory income tax rate
= × 21.00% =

8 Elimination of after taxes investment income.


Net Earnings
The net earnings of the company demonstrated a significant upward trend from 2020 to 2022, rising from 4,281 million US dollars to 8,442 million US dollars. This almost doubled the net earnings within a two-year period, indicating robust profitability. However, in 2023, there was a noticeable decline to 6,437 million US dollars, followed by a partial recovery in 2024 to 7,726 million US dollars. The most recent data for 2025 shows a decrease again to 6,957 million US dollars, suggesting some volatility or challenges impacting net earnings in the latter period.
Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT)
The NOPAT figures align with the general trend observed in net earnings. Starting at 5,097 million US dollars in 2020, NOPAT increased steadily through 2021 and peaked at 9,827 million US dollars in 2022. This indicates improved operational efficiency and profitability. Following the peak, NOPAT decreased to 7,020 million US dollars in 2023, then rose again to 8,789 million US dollars in 2024, before declining to 8,137 million US dollars in 2025. Although the fluctuations in NOPAT mirror those in net earnings, the values still reflect a relatively strong operating performance over the years.

Cash Operating Taxes

Lowe’s Cos. Inc., cash operating taxes calculation

US$ in millions

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Jan 31, 2025 Feb 2, 2024 Feb 3, 2023 Jan 28, 2022 Jan 29, 2021 Jan 31, 2020
Income tax provision
Less: Deferred income tax expense (benefit)
Add: Tax savings from interest expense, net of amount capitalized
Less: Tax imposed on investment income
Cash operating taxes

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2025-01-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2024-02-02), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-02-03), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-01-28), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-01-29), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-01-31).


The data reflects the annual figures for income tax provision and cash operating taxes over a six-year period. Both financial items show a general upward trend from 2020 to 2023, followed by a noticeable decline in the later years.

Income Tax Provision
The income tax provision increased significantly from 1,342 million USD in 2020 to a peak of 2,766 million USD in 2022. After 2022, the provision declined steadily to 2,196 million USD by 2025. This pattern suggests a rise in taxable income or tax liabilities initially, followed by effective tax management or reduced taxable income in the later years.
Cash Operating Taxes
Cash operating taxes also exhibit consistent growth, increasing from 1,386 million USD in 2020 to a peak of 3,055 million USD in 2023. Post-2023, these taxes decreased to 2,501 million USD by 2025. This trend aligns closely with the income tax provision pattern, indicating cash tax payments followed similar dynamics, perhaps influenced by timing differences or changes in tax regulations.

Overall, the data shows strong growth in tax-related expenses through early years, peaking around 2022-2023, with subsequent reductions suggesting strategic tax planning, fluctuations in earnings, or changes in tax rules that impacted both provision and cash taxes similarly.


Invested Capital

Lowe’s Cos. Inc., invested capital calculation (financing approach)

US$ in millions

Microsoft Excel
Jan 31, 2025 Feb 2, 2024 Feb 3, 2023 Jan 28, 2022 Jan 29, 2021 Jan 31, 2020
Short-term borrowings
Current maturities of long-term debt
Long-term debt, excluding current maturities
Operating lease liability1
Total reported debt & leases
Shareholders’ equity (deficit)
Net deferred tax (assets) liabilities2
Deferred revenue3
Equity equivalents4
Accumulated other comprehensive (income) loss, net of tax5
Adjusted shareholders’ equity (deficit)
Construction in progress6
Investments7
Invested capital

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2025-01-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2024-02-02), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-02-03), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-01-28), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-01-29), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-01-31).

1 Addition of capitalized operating leases.

2 Elimination of deferred taxes from assets and liabilities. See details »

3 Addition of deferred revenue.

4 Addition of equity equivalents to shareholders’ equity (deficit).

5 Removal of accumulated other comprehensive income.

6 Subtraction of construction in progress.

7 Subtraction of investments.


The financial data reveals several notable trends over the periods analyzed. One prominent pattern is the consistent increase in total reported debt and leases from 23,750 million US dollars in early 2020 to a peak of 40,145 million US dollars in early 2024, followed by a slight reduction to 39,678 million US dollars in early 2025. This indicates a significant rise in the company's leverage over the five-year period, particularly between 2021 and 2024.

Shareholders' equity shows a concerning downward trajectory, decreasing from 1,972 million US dollars in early 2020 to a negative value starting in 2022. The deficit deepens sharply from -4,816 million US dollars in early 2022 to a low point around -15,050 million US dollars in early 2024, with a minor improvement to -14,231 million US dollars in early 2025. This negative equity position suggests substantial accumulated losses or other equity-reducing events, which may impact the company’s financial stability and shareholder confidence.

Invested capital fluctuates throughout the period, starting at 26,717 million US dollars in early 2020 and peaking at 28,534 million US dollars in early 2021. Subsequently, it declines to a low of 24,710 million US dollars in early 2023 before gradually increasing again to 26,276 million US dollars by early 2025. These movements reflect variations in the company’s long-term investments and financing structure, possibly influenced by the changes in debt and equity.

Total Reported Debt & Leases
Shows a strong upward trend from 2020 through 2024, increasing by approximately 69%, followed by a slight decrease in 2025.
Shareholders’ Equity (Deficit)
Transitions from positive equity into a growing deficit starting in 2022, with the deficit nearly tripling by 2024 and remaining substantial in 2025.
Invested Capital
Peaks in 2021, declines through 2023, then recovers modestly by 2025, suggesting adjustments in capital investment and financing.

Overall, the company exhibits increasing financial leverage and deteriorating equity over the analyzed period, which may reflect operational challenges, increased borrowing, or sustained losses. The minor recovery in invested capital in the later periods could indicate attempts to stabilize or improve financial structure. Close attention to the relationship between debt levels and equity is warranted to assess ongoing financial health and risk exposure.


Cost of Capital

Lowe’s Cos. Inc., cost of capital calculations

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Debt, including finance lease obligations3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2025-01-31).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt, including finance lease obligations. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Debt, including finance lease obligations3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-02-02).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt, including finance lease obligations. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Debt, including finance lease obligations3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-02-03).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt, including finance lease obligations. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Debt, including finance lease obligations3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2022-01-28).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt, including finance lease obligations. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Debt, including finance lease obligations3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2021-01-29).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt, including finance lease obligations. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Debt, including finance lease obligations3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2020-01-31).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt, including finance lease obligations. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »


Economic Spread Ratio

Lowe’s Cos. Inc., economic spread ratio calculation, comparison to benchmarks

Microsoft Excel
Jan 31, 2025 Feb 2, 2024 Feb 3, 2023 Jan 28, 2022 Jan 29, 2021 Jan 31, 2020
Selected Financial Data (US$ in millions)
Economic profit1
Invested capital2
Performance Ratio
Economic spread ratio3
Benchmarks
Economic Spread Ratio, Competitors4
Amazon.com Inc.
Home Depot Inc.
TJX Cos. Inc.

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2025-01-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2024-02-02), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-02-03), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-01-28), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-01-29), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-01-31).

1 Economic profit. See details »

2 Invested capital. See details »

3 2025 Calculation
Economic spread ratio = 100 × Economic profit ÷ Invested capital
= 100 × ÷ =

4 Click competitor name to see calculations.


Economic Profit
The economic profit exhibits a fluctuating but generally upward trend over the reported periods. Starting at 1,977 million US dollars in January 2020, it rises significantly to a peak of 6,200 million in January 2022. Subsequently, it decreases to 3,817 million by February 2023, before increasing again to 5,318 million in February 2024. The value slightly declines to 4,658 million by January 2025. This pattern reflects variability in profitability while maintaining a level notably higher than the initial value.
Invested Capital
The invested capital demonstrates a decreasing trend overall with some minor fluctuations. Beginning at 26,717 million US dollars in January 2020, it increases slightly to 28,534 million in January 2021 but then declines to 24,710 million by February 2023. A modest recovery occurs through February 2024 and January 2025, reaching 25,913 million and 26,276 million, respectively. This indicates a reduction in invested capital over the medium term, which may have implications for capital efficiency and risk exposure.
Economic Spread Ratio
The economic spread ratio shows a consistent upward trajectory, starting from 7.4% in January 2020 and peaking at 23.58% in January 2022. Following this peak, it declines to 15.45% in February 2023 but increases again to 20.52% in February 2024 and slightly decreases to 17.73% in January 2025. The overall improvement suggests enhanced returns relative to the cost of capital across the reporting periods, despite some volatility after the peak.

Economic Profit Margin

Lowe’s Cos. Inc., economic profit margin calculation, comparison to benchmarks

Microsoft Excel
Jan 31, 2025 Feb 2, 2024 Feb 3, 2023 Jan 28, 2022 Jan 29, 2021 Jan 31, 2020
Selected Financial Data (US$ in millions)
Economic profit1
 
Net sales
Add: Increase (decrease) in deferred revenue
Adjusted net sales
Performance Ratio
Economic profit margin2
Benchmarks
Economic Profit Margin, Competitors3
Amazon.com Inc.
Home Depot Inc.
TJX Cos. Inc.

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2025-01-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2024-02-02), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-02-03), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-01-28), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-01-29), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-01-31).

1 Economic profit. See details »

2 2025 Calculation
Economic profit margin = 100 × Economic profit ÷ Adjusted net sales
= 100 × ÷ =

3 Click competitor name to see calculations.


Over the observed periods, the economic profit exhibits notable fluctuations. Starting at 1,977 million US dollars in early 2020, it increases significantly to a peak of 6,200 million in early 2022. After this peak, economic profit declines to 3,817 million in early 2023, before rising again to 5,318 million in early 2024, and then falls to 4,658 million by early 2025. This pattern suggests volatility in profitability, with a pronounced peak followed by alternating decreases and increases.

Adjusted net sales follow a different trajectory. Beginning at 72,135 million US dollars in 2020, sales progressively increase to a maximum of 96,822 million in early 2023. However, the trend reverses after this point, with sales declining to 86,206 million in early 2024 and further to 83,667 million by early 2025. This indicates that after a period of steady growth, sales have faced downward pressure in the most recent years.

The economic profit margin shows similar variability to economic profit. Starting at 2.74% in 2020, it rises to 6.41% by early 2022, before declining to 3.94% in early 2023. Subsequently, the margin rebounds to 6.17% in early 2024 and then decreases to 5.57% in early 2025. This margin pattern indicates changes in profitability relative to sales, highlighting periods of improved efficiency or profitability as well as intervals of contraction.

Summary of trends:
The economic profit and economic profit margin display peaks around early 2022 and early 2024, with subsequent declines suggesting fluctuations in profitability.
Adjusted net sales show growth from 2020 to early 2023, followed by a notable decline through 2024 and 2025.
The divergence in sales and profit trends in recent years may indicate varying operational efficiency or changes in cost structure affecting profit margins despite sales decline.