Stock Analysis on Net

Pfizer Inc. (NYSE:PFE)

Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Microsoft Excel

In discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation techniques the value of the stock is estimated based upon present value of some measure of cash flow. Dividends are the cleanest and most straightforward measure of cash flow because these are clearly cash flows that go directly to the investor.


Intrinsic Stock Value (Valuation Summary)

Pfizer Inc., dividends per share (DPS) forecast

US$

Microsoft Excel
Year Value DPSt or Terminal value (TVt) Calculation Present value at 10.35%
0 DPS01 1.64
1 DPS1 1.80 = 1.64 × (1 + 9.65%) 1.63
2 DPS2 1.94 = 1.80 × (1 + 8.13%) 1.60
3 DPS3 2.07 = 1.94 × (1 + 6.61%) 1.54
4 DPS4 2.18 = 2.07 × (1 + 5.10%) 1.47
5 DPS5 2.26 = 2.18 × (1 + 3.58%) 1.38
5 Terminal value (TV5) 34.54 = 2.26 × (1 + 3.58%) ÷ (10.35%3.58%) 21.11
Intrinsic value of Pfizer Inc. common stock (per share) $28.73
Current share price $25.10

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31).

1 DPS0 = Sum of the last year dividends per share of Pfizer Inc. common stock. See details »

Disclaimer!
Valuation is based on standard assumptions. There may exist specific factors relevant to stock value and omitted here. In such a case, the real stock value may differ significantly form the estimated. If you want to use the estimated intrinsic stock value in investment decision making process, do so at your own risk.


Required Rate of Return (r)

Microsoft Excel
Assumptions
Rate of return on LT Treasury Composite1 RF 4.65%
Expected rate of return on market portfolio2 E(RM) 13.79%
Systematic risk of Pfizer Inc. common stock βPFE 0.62
 
Required rate of return on Pfizer Inc. common stock3 rPFE 10.35%

1 Unweighted average of bid yields on all outstanding fixed-coupon U.S. Treasury bonds neither due or callable in less than 10 years (risk-free rate of return proxy).

2 See details »

3 rPFE = RF + βPFE [E(RM) – RF]
= 4.65% + 0.62 [13.79%4.65%]
= 10.35%


Dividend Growth Rate (g)

Dividend growth rate (g) implied by PRAT model

Pfizer Inc., PRAT model

Microsoft Excel
Average Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019
Selected Financial Data (US$ in millions)
Cash dividends declared, common stock 9,316 9,037 8,816 8,571 8,174
Cash dividends declared, preferred stock 1
Net income attributable to Pfizer Inc. 2,119 31,372 21,979 9,616 16,273
Revenues 58,496 100,330 81,288 41,908 51,750
Total assets 226,501 197,205 181,476 154,229 167,489
Total Pfizer Inc. shareholders’ equity 89,014 95,661 77,201 63,238 63,143
Financial Ratios
Retention rate1 -3.40 0.71 0.60 0.11 0.50
Profit margin2 3.62% 31.27% 27.04% 22.95% 31.44%
Asset turnover3 0.26 0.51 0.45 0.27 0.31
Financial leverage4 2.54 2.06 2.35 2.44 2.65
Averages
Retention rate 0.48
Profit margin 23.26%
Asset turnover 0.36
Financial leverage 2.41
 
Dividend growth rate (g)5 9.65%

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).

2023 Calculations

1 Retention rate = (Net income attributable to Pfizer Inc. – Cash dividends declared, common stock – Cash dividends declared, preferred stock) ÷ (Net income attributable to Pfizer Inc. – Cash dividends declared, preferred stock)
= (2,1199,3160) ÷ (2,1190)
= -3.40

2 Profit margin = 100 × (Net income attributable to Pfizer Inc. – Cash dividends declared, preferred stock) ÷ Revenues
= 100 × (2,1190) ÷ 58,496
= 3.62%

3 Asset turnover = Revenues ÷ Total assets
= 58,496 ÷ 226,501
= 0.26

4 Financial leverage = Total assets ÷ Total Pfizer Inc. shareholders’ equity
= 226,501 ÷ 89,014
= 2.54

5 g = Retention rate × Profit margin × Asset turnover × Financial leverage
= 0.48 × 23.26% × 0.36 × 2.41
= 9.65%


Dividend growth rate (g) implied by Gordon growth model

g = 100 × (P0 × rD0) ÷ (P0 + D0)
= 100 × ($25.10 × 10.35%$1.64) ÷ ($25.10 + $1.64)
= 3.58%

where:
P0 = current price of share of Pfizer Inc. common stock
D0 = the last year dividends per share of Pfizer Inc. common stock
r = required rate of return on Pfizer Inc. common stock


Dividend growth rate (g) forecast

Pfizer Inc., H-model

Microsoft Excel
Year Value gt
1 g1 9.65%
2 g2 8.13%
3 g3 6.61%
4 g4 5.10%
5 and thereafter g5 3.58%

where:
g1 is implied by PRAT model
g5 is implied by Gordon growth model
g2, g3 and g4 are calculated using linear interpoltion between g1 and g5

Calculations

g2 = g1 + (g5g1) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 9.65% + (3.58%9.65%) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 8.13%

g3 = g1 + (g5g1) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 9.65% + (3.58%9.65%) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 6.61%

g4 = g1 + (g5g1) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 9.65% + (3.58%9.65%) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 5.10%