Stock Analysis on Net

Pfizer Inc. (NYSE:PFE)

Stock Price Trends


Summary

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.98% per annum.
  • PFE price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $25.10 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.61% per annum.
  • PFE price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.74 (6.47%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PFE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 26, 2021
End date: July 11, 2024

a = 4.4992

b = -0.0008

s = 0.0699

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -23.98%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0699) – 1
= 32.25%

November 26, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y508)
= Exp(a + b × X508 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 737 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4992 + -0.0008 × 737 + 2 × 0.0699)
= Exp(4.0854)
= $59.47

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y508)
= Exp(a + b × X508 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 737 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4992 + -0.0008 × 737 – 2 × 0.0699)
= Exp(3.8059)
= $44.97

July 11, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,165)
= Exp(a + b × X1,165 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,695 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4992 + -0.0008 × 1,695 + 2 × 0.0699)
= Exp(3.3659)
= $28.96

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,165)
= Exp(a + b × X1,165 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,695 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4992 + -0.0008 × 1,695 – 2 × 0.0699)
= Exp(3.0863)
= $21.90

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.98% per annum.
  • PFE price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $25.10 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: December 1, 2023
End date: November 5, 2024

a = 2.7709

b = 0.0003

s = 0.0376

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 12.61%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0376) – 1
= 16.24%

December 1, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,014)
= Exp(a + b × X1,014 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,472 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7709 + 0.0003 × 1,472 + 2 × 0.0376)
= Exp(3.3251)
= $27.80

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,014)
= Exp(a + b × X1,014 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,472 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7709 + 0.0003 × 1,472 – 2 × 0.0376)
= Exp(3.1746)
= $23.92

November 5, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7709 + 0.0003 × 1,812 + 2 × 0.0376)
= Exp(3.4357)
= $31.05

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7709 + 0.0003 × 1,812 – 2 × 0.0376)
= Exp(3.2852)
= $26.72

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.61% per annum.
  • PFE price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.74 (6.47%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
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