Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 13.55% per annum.
- PG price at the close of February 20, 2025 was $167.21 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 4.13% per annum.
- PG price at the close of February 20, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 30, 2022
End date: December 27, 2024
a = 4.5341
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0368
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 13.55%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0368) – 1
= 15.87%
August 30, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y636)
= Exp(a + b × X636 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 921 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5341 + 0.0003 × 921 + 2 × 0.0368)
= Exp(4.9283)
= $138.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y636)
= Exp(a + b × X636 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 921 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5341 + 0.0003 × 921 – 2 × 0.0368)
= Exp(4.7810)
= $119.23
December 27, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,221)
= Exp(a + b × X1,221 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5341 + 0.0003 × 1,771 + 2 × 0.0368)
= Exp(5.2241)
= $185.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,221)
= Exp(a + b × X1,221 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5341 + 0.0003 × 1,771 – 2 × 0.0368)
= Exp(5.0769)
= $160.27
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 13.55% per annum.
- PG price at the close of February 20, 2025 was $167.21 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 2, 2024
End date: February 20, 2025
a = 5.3241
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0238
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -4.13%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0238) – 1
= 10.00%
August 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,119)
= Exp(a + b × X1,119 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,624 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3241 + -0.0001 × 1,624 + 2 × 0.0238)
= Exp(5.1842)
= $178.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,119)
= Exp(a + b × X1,119 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,624 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3241 + -0.0001 × 1,624 – 2 × 0.0238)
= Exp(5.0888)
= $162.20
February 20, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3241 + -0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0238)
= Exp(5.1608)
= $174.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3241 + -0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0238)
= Exp(5.0655)
= $158.46
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 4.13% per annum.
- PG price at the close of February 20, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
Check out PG and 1,499 other stocks on our new website