Present Value of Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE)
In discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation techniques the value of the stock is estimated based upon present value of some measure of cash flow. Free cash flow to equity (FCFE) is generally described as cash flows available to the equity holder after payments to debt holders and after allowing for expenditures to maintain the company asset base.
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Costco Wholesale Corp. pages available for free this week:
- Balance Sheet: Assets
- DuPont Analysis: Disaggregation of ROE, ROA, and Net Profit Margin
- Common Stock Valuation Ratios
- Enterprise Value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA)
- Enterprise Value to FCFF (EV/FCFF)
- Total Asset Turnover since 2005
- Price to Earnings (P/E) since 2005
- Price to Operating Profit (P/OP) since 2005
- Price to Book Value (P/BV) since 2005
- Analysis of Revenues
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Intrinsic Stock Value (Valuation Summary)
Costco Wholesale Corp., free cash flow to equity (FCFE) forecast
US$ in millions, except per share data
| Year | Value | FCFEt or Terminal value (TVt) | Calculation | Present value at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | FCFE0 | |||
| 1 | FCFE1 | = × (1 + ) | ||
| 2 | FCFE2 | = × (1 + ) | ||
| 3 | FCFE3 | = × (1 + ) | ||
| 4 | FCFE4 | = × (1 + ) | ||
| 5 | FCFE5 | = × (1 + ) | ||
| 5 | Terminal value (TV5) | = × (1 + ) ÷ ( – ) | ||
| Intrinsic value of Costco Wholesale Corp. common stock | ||||
| Intrinsic value of Costco Wholesale Corp. common stock (per share) | ||||
| Current share price | ||||
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-09-01).
Disclaimer!
Valuation is based on standard assumptions. There may exist specific factors relevant to stock value and omitted here. In such a case, the real stock value may differ significantly form the estimated. If you want to use the estimated intrinsic stock value in investment decision making process, do so at your own risk.
Required Rate of Return (r)
| Assumptions | ||
| Rate of return on LT Treasury Composite1 | RF | |
| Expected rate of return on market portfolio2 | E(RM) | |
| Systematic risk of Costco Wholesale Corp. common stock | βCOST | |
| Required rate of return on Costco Wholesale Corp. common stock3 | rCOST | |
1 Unweighted average of bid yields on all outstanding fixed-coupon U.S. Treasury bonds neither due or callable in less than 10 years (risk-free rate of return proxy).
3 rCOST = RF + βCOST [E(RM) – RF]
= + [ – ]
=
FCFE Growth Rate (g)
FCFE growth rate (g) implied by PRAT model
Costco Wholesale Corp., PRAT model
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-09-01), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-09-03), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-08-28), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-08-29), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-08-30), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-09-01).
2024 Calculations
1 Retention rate = (Net income attributable to Costco – Cash dividends declared) ÷ Net income attributable to Costco
= ( – ) ÷
=
2 Profit margin = 100 × Net income attributable to Costco ÷ Net sales
= 100 × ÷
=
3 Asset turnover = Net sales ÷ Total assets
= ÷
=
4 Financial leverage = Total assets ÷ Total Costco stockholders’ equity
= ÷
=
5 g = Retention rate × Profit margin × Asset turnover × Financial leverage
= × × ×
=
FCFE growth rate (g) implied by single-stage model
g = 100 × (Equity market value0 × r – FCFE0) ÷ (Equity market value0 + FCFE0)
= 100 × ( × – ) ÷ ( + )
=
where:
Equity market value0 = current market value of Costco Wholesale Corp. common stock (US$ in millions)
FCFE0 = the last year Costco Wholesale Corp. free cash flow to equity (US$ in millions)
r = required rate of return on Costco Wholesale Corp. common stock
FCFE growth rate (g) forecast
Costco Wholesale Corp., H-model
| Year | Value | gt |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | g1 | |
| 2 | g2 | |
| 3 | g3 | |
| 4 | g4 | |
| 5 and thereafter | g5 |
where:
g1 is implied by PRAT model
g5 is implied by single-stage model
g2, g3 and g4 are calculated using linear interpoltion between g1 and g5
Calculations
g2 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= + ( – ) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
=
g3 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= + ( – ) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
=
g4 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= + ( – ) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
=