Present Value of Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF)
In discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation techniques the value of the stock is estimated based upon present value of some measure of cash flow. Free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) is generally described as cash flows after direct costs and before any payments to capital suppliers.
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Costco Wholesale Corp. pages available for free this week:
- Balance Sheet: Assets
- DuPont Analysis: Disaggregation of ROE, ROA, and Net Profit Margin
- Common Stock Valuation Ratios
- Enterprise Value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA)
- Enterprise Value to FCFF (EV/FCFF)
- Total Asset Turnover since 2005
- Price to Earnings (P/E) since 2005
- Price to Operating Profit (P/OP) since 2005
- Price to Book Value (P/BV) since 2005
- Analysis of Revenues
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Intrinsic Stock Value (Valuation Summary)
Costco Wholesale Corp., free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) forecast
US$ in millions, except per share data
| Year | Value | FCFFt or Terminal value (TVt) | Calculation | Present value at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | FCFF0 | |||
| 1 | FCFF1 | = × (1 + ) | ||
| 2 | FCFF2 | = × (1 + ) | ||
| 3 | FCFF3 | = × (1 + ) | ||
| 4 | FCFF4 | = × (1 + ) | ||
| 5 | FCFF5 | = × (1 + ) | ||
| 5 | Terminal value (TV5) | = × (1 + ) ÷ ( – ) | ||
| Intrinsic value of Costco Wholesale Corp. capital | ||||
| Less: Long-term debt, including current portion and finance lease liabilities (fair value) | ||||
| Intrinsic value of Costco Wholesale Corp. common stock | ||||
| Intrinsic value of Costco Wholesale Corp. common stock (per share) | ||||
| Current share price | ||||
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-09-01).
Disclaimer!
Valuation is based on standard assumptions. There may exist specific factors relevant to stock value and omitted here. In such a case, the real stock value may differ significantly form the estimated. If you want to use the estimated intrinsic stock value in investment decision making process, do so at your own risk.
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
Costco Wholesale Corp., cost of capital
| Value1 | Weight | Required rate of return2 | Calculation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity (fair value) | ||||
| Long-term debt, including current portion and finance lease liabilities (fair value) | = × (1 – ) |
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-09-01).
1 US$ in millions
Equity (fair value) = No. shares of common stock outstanding × Current share price
= ×
=
Long-term debt, including current portion and finance lease liabilities (fair value). See details »
2 Required rate of return on equity is estimated by using CAPM. See details »
Required rate of return on debt. See details »
Required rate of return on debt is after tax.
Estimated (average) effective income tax rate
= ( + + + + + ) ÷ 6
=
WACC =
FCFF Growth Rate (g)
FCFF growth rate (g) implied by PRAT model
Costco Wholesale Corp., PRAT model
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-09-01), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-09-03), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-08-28), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-08-29), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-08-30), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-09-01).
2024 Calculations
2 Interest expense, after tax = Interest expense × (1 – EITR)
= × (1 – )
=
3 EBIT(1 – EITR)
= Net income attributable to Costco + Interest expense, after tax
= +
=
4 RR = [EBIT(1 – EITR) – Interest expense (after tax) and dividends] ÷ EBIT(1 – EITR)
= [ – ] ÷
=
5 ROIC = 100 × EBIT(1 – EITR) ÷ Total capital
= 100 × ÷
=
6 g = RR × ROIC
= ×
=
FCFF growth rate (g) implied by single-stage model
g = 100 × (Total capital, fair value0 × WACC – FCFF0) ÷ (Total capital, fair value0 + FCFF0)
= 100 × ( × – ) ÷ ( + )
=
where:
Total capital, fair value0 = current fair value of Costco Wholesale Corp. debt and equity (US$ in millions)
FCFF0 = the last year Costco Wholesale Corp. free cash flow to the firm (US$ in millions)
WACC = weighted average cost of Costco Wholesale Corp. capital
FCFF growth rate (g) forecast
Costco Wholesale Corp., H-model
| Year | Value | gt |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | g1 | |
| 2 | g2 | |
| 3 | g3 | |
| 4 | g4 | |
| 5 and thereafter | g5 |
where:
g1 is implied by PRAT model
g5 is implied by single-stage model
g2, g3 and g4 are calculated using linear interpoltion between g1 and g5
Calculations
g2 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= + ( – ) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
=
g3 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= + ( – ) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
=
g4 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= + ( – ) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
=