Dividend Discount Model (DDM)
In discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation techniques the value of the stock is estimated based upon present value of some measure of cash flow. Dividends are the cleanest and most straightforward measure of cash flow because these are clearly cash flows that go directly to the investor.
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Ulta Beauty Inc. pages available for free this week:
- Cash Flow Statement
- Analysis of Short-term (Operating) Activity Ratios
- DuPont Analysis: Disaggregation of ROE, ROA, and Net Profit Margin
- Enterprise Value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA)
- Present Value of Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE)
- Operating Profit Margin since 2008
- Return on Assets (ROA) since 2008
- Debt to Equity since 2008
- Total Asset Turnover since 2008
- Price to Book Value (P/BV) since 2008
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Intrinsic Stock Value (Valuation Summary)
Ulta Beauty Inc., dividends per share (DPS) forecast
US$
| Year | Value | DPSt or Terminal value (TVt) | Calculation | Present value at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | DPS01 | |||
| 1 | DPS1 | = × (1 + ) | ||
| 2 | DPS2 | = × (1 + ) | ||
| 3 | DPS3 | = × (1 + ) | ||
| 4 | DPS4 | = × (1 + ) | ||
| 5 | DPS5 | = × (1 + ) | ||
| 5 | Terminal value (TV5) | = × (1 + ) ÷ ( – ) | ||
| Intrinsic value of Ulta Beauty Inc. common stock (per share) | ||||
| Current share price | ||||
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-01-28).
1 DPS0 = Sum of the last year dividends per share of Ulta Beauty Inc. common stock. See details »
Disclaimer!
Valuation is based on standard assumptions. There may exist specific factors relevant to stock value and omitted here. In such a case, the real stock value may differ significantly form the estimated. If you want to use the estimated intrinsic stock value in investment decision making process, do so at your own risk.
Required Rate of Return (r)
| Assumptions | ||
| Rate of return on LT Treasury Composite1 | RF | |
| Expected rate of return on market portfolio2 | E(RM) | |
| Systematic risk of Ulta Beauty Inc. common stock | βULTA | |
| Required rate of return on Ulta Beauty Inc. common stock3 | rULTA | |
1 Unweighted average of bid yields on all outstanding fixed-coupon U.S. Treasury bonds neither due or callable in less than 10 years (risk-free rate of return proxy).
3 rULTA = RF + βULTA [E(RM) – RF]
= + [ – ]
=
Dividend Growth Rate (g)
Company does not pay dividends.