Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
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Ulta Beauty Inc. pages available for free this week:
- Common-Size Income Statement
- Analysis of Solvency Ratios
- DuPont Analysis: Disaggregation of ROE, ROA, and Net Profit Margin
- Enterprise Value (EV)
- Enterprise Value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA)
- Present Value of Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE)
- Net Profit Margin since 2008
- Operating Profit Margin since 2008
- Return on Assets (ROA) since 2008
- Price to Operating Profit (P/OP) since 2008
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Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 56.94% per annum.
- ULTA price at the close of August 24, 2023 was $422.74 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $340.66 (44.62%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 21.55% per annum.
- ULTA price at the close of August 24, 2023 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $19.73 (4.46%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ULTA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date:
End date:
a =
b =
s =
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=
March 9, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
January 7, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 56.94% per annum.
- ULTA price at the close of August 24, 2023 was $422.74 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $340.66 (44.62%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date:
End date:
a =
b =
s =
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=
November 16, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
August 24, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 21.55% per annum.
- ULTA price at the close of August 24, 2023 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $19.73 (4.46%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Check current ULTA price trends.
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