Present Value of Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE)
In discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation techniques the value of the stock is estimated based upon present value of some measure of cash flow. Free cash flow to equity (FCFE) is generally described as cash flows available to the equity holder after payments to debt holders and after allowing for expenditures to maintain the company asset base.
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Anadarko Petroleum Corp. pages available for free this week:
- Balance Sheet: Liabilities and Stockholders’ Equity
- Cash Flow Statement
- Analysis of Profitability Ratios
- Analysis of Short-term (Operating) Activity Ratios
- Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
- Selected Financial Data since 2005
- Return on Assets (ROA) since 2005
- Current Ratio since 2005
- Analysis of Debt
- Aggregate Accruals
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Intrinsic Stock Value (Valuation Summary)
Anadarko Petroleum Corp., free cash flow to equity (FCFE) forecast
US$ in millions, except per share data
| Year | Value | FCFEt or Terminal value (TVt) | Calculation | Present value at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | FCFE0 | |||
| 1 | FCFE1 | = × (1 + ) | ||
| 2 | FCFE2 | = × (1 + ) | ||
| 3 | FCFE3 | = × (1 + ) | ||
| 4 | FCFE4 | = × (1 + ) | ||
| 5 | FCFE5 | = × (1 + ) | ||
| 5 | Terminal value (TV5) | = × (1 + ) ÷ ( – ) | ||
| Intrinsic value of Anadarko Petroleum Corp. common stock | ||||
| Intrinsic value of Anadarko Petroleum Corp. common stock (per share) | ||||
| Current share price | ||||
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2016-12-31).
Disclaimer!
Valuation is based on standard assumptions. There may exist specific factors relevant to stock value and omitted here. In such a case, the real stock value may differ significantly form the estimated. If you want to use the estimated intrinsic stock value in investment decision making process, do so at your own risk.
Required Rate of Return (r)
| Assumptions | ||
| Rate of return on LT Treasury Composite1 | RF | |
| Expected rate of return on market portfolio2 | E(RM) | |
| Systematic risk of Anadarko Petroleum Corp. common stock | βAPC | |
| Required rate of return on Anadarko Petroleum Corp. common stock3 | rAPC | |
1 Unweighted average of bid yields on all outstanding fixed-coupon U.S. Treasury bonds neither due or callable in less than 10 years (risk-free rate of return proxy).
3 rAPC = RF + βAPC [E(RM) – RF]
= + [ – ]
=
FCFE Growth Rate (g)
FCFE growth rate (g) implied by PRAT model
Anadarko Petroleum Corp., PRAT model
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2016-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2015-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2014-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2013-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2012-12-31).
2016 Calculations
1 Retention rate = (Net income (loss) attributable to common stockholders – Dividends, common stock) ÷ Net income (loss) attributable to common stockholders
= ( – ) ÷
=
2 Profit margin = 100 × Net income (loss) attributable to common stockholders ÷ Sales revenues
= 100 × ÷
=
3 Asset turnover = Sales revenues ÷ Total assets
= ÷
=
4 Financial leverage = Total assets ÷ Stockholders’ equity
= ÷
=
5 g = Retention rate × Profit margin × Asset turnover × Financial leverage
= × × ×
=
FCFE growth rate (g) forecast
Anadarko Petroleum Corp., H-model
| Year | Value | gt |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | g1 | |
| 2 | g2 | |
| 3 | g3 | |
| 4 | g4 | |
| 5 and thereafter | g5 |
where:
g1 is implied by PRAT model
g5 is implied by single-stage model
g2, g3 and g4 are calculated using linear interpoltion between g1 and g5
Calculations
g2 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= + ( – ) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
=
g3 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= + ( – ) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
=
g4 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= + ( – ) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
=