Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 203.30% per annum.
- MOS price at the close of August 2, 2022 was $52.22 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $65.97 (55.82%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 84.88% per annum.
- MOS price at the close of August 2, 2022 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MOS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 6, 2020
End date: June 11, 2021
a = -0.6060
b = 0.0030
s = 0.0847
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0030) – 1
= 203.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0847) – 1
= 40.32%
March 6, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y651)
= Exp(a + b × X651 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 946 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.6060 + 0.0030 × 946 + 2 × 0.0847)
= Exp(2.4390)
= $11.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y651)
= Exp(a + b × X651 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 946 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.6060 + 0.0030 × 946 – 2 × 0.0847)
= Exp(2.1003)
= $8.17
June 11, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y970)
= Exp(a + b × X970 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,408 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.6060 + 0.0030 × 1,408 + 2 × 0.0847)
= Exp(3.8435)
= $46.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y970)
= Exp(a + b × X970 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,408 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.6060 + 0.0030 × 1,408 – 2 × 0.0847)
= Exp(3.5047)
= $33.27
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 203.30% per annum.
- MOS price at the close of August 2, 2022 was $52.22 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $65.97 (55.82%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 4, 2020
End date: August 2, 2022
a = 1.0689
b = 0.0017
s = 0.1460
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 84.88%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1460) – 1
= 79.32%
August 4, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y755)
= Exp(a + b × X755 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,097 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0689 + 0.0017 × 1,097 + 2 × 0.1460)
= Exp(3.2080)
= $24.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y755)
= Exp(a + b × X755 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,097 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0689 + 0.0017 × 1,097 – 2 × 0.1460)
= Exp(2.6240)
= $13.79
August 2, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0689 + 0.0017 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1460)
= Exp(4.4337)
= $84.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0689 + 0.0017 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1460)
= Exp(3.8497)
= $46.98
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 84.88% per annum.
- MOS price at the close of August 2, 2022 was inside the secondary price channel.
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