Mosaic Co., FCFE calculation

US$ in thousands

12 months ended:	Dec 31, 2021	Dec 31, 2020	Dec 31, 2019	Dec 31, 2018	Dec 31, 2017
Net earnings (loss) attributable to Mosaic	1,630,600)	666,100)	(1,067,400)	470,000)	(107,200)
Net (earnings) loss attributable to noncontrolling interests	4,300)	(500)	(23,400)	(100)	3,000)
Net noncash charges	1,181,800)	390,100)	2,255,400)	1,105,100)	1,356,600)
Changes in assets and liabilities	(629,700)	526,900)	(69,200)	(165,200)	(316,900)
Net cash provided by operating activities	2,187,000)	1,582,600)	1,095,400)	1,409,800)	935,500)
Capital expenditures	(1,288,600)	(1,170,600)	(1,272,200)	(954,500)	(820,100)
Payments of short-term debt	(726,600)	(1,542,500)	(554,200)	(144,400)	(601,400)
Proceeds from issuance of short-term debt	1,029,300)	1,521,100)	591,000)	155,100)	631,400)
Payments of structured accounts payable arrangements	(1,028,400)	(1,156,200)	(977,100)	(762,100)	(418,500)
Proceeds from structured accounts payable arrangements	1,122,700)	1,037,400)	1,124,200)	834,100)	666,800)
Payments of long-term debt	(608,300)	(66,900)	(48,300)	(802,900)	(102,200)
Proceeds from issuance of long-term debt	—)	4,700)	—)	39,300)	1,251,400)
Payment of financing costs	—)	—)	—)	—)	(15,400)
Free cash flow to equity (FCFE)	687,100)	209,600)	(41,200)	(225,600)	1,527,500)

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2018-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2017-12-31).

Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities: The net cash provided by operating activities shows a generally increasing trend over the period from 2017 to 2021. Starting at $935,500 thousand in 2017, the cash flow increased to $1,409,800 thousand in 2018, representing significant growth. Although there was a decline to $1,095,400 thousand in 2019, the operating cash flow increased again in the following years, reaching $1,582,600 thousand in 2020 and further rising to $2,187,000 thousand in 2021. Overall, this suggests improving operational efficiency and stronger cash generation capacity in the latter years.
Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE): Free cash flow to equity exhibits higher volatility compared to operating cash flow. It begins with a strong positive figure of $1,527,500 thousand in 2017. However, this is followed by a sharp deterioration into negative territory in 2018 and 2019, with values of -$225,600 thousand and -$41,200 thousand respectively. The metric returns to positive values in 2020, with $209,600 thousand, and improves further to $687,100 thousand in 2021. These fluctuations suggest challenges in capital expenditures or financing activities affecting equity holders, particularly in 2018 and 2019, before a recovery phase in subsequent years.
Overall Analysis: The data indicates consistent improvement in core business cash generation, as evidenced by the upward trajectory of operating cash flow from 2019 onwards. Conversely, free cash flow to equity is more erratic, with significant negative values in the middle of the period before rebounding. This suggests that while operational performance strengthened, the company's cash available to equity shareholders was influenced by other factors such as investments or financing decisions, causing temporary constraints followed by recovery.

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Mosaic Co., current P/FCFE calculation, comparison to benchmarks

No. shares of common stock outstanding	345,267,189
Selected Financial Data (US$)
Free cash flow to equity (FCFE) (in thousands)	687,100)
FCFE per share	1.99
Current share price (P)	52.22
Valuation Ratio
P/FCFE	26.24
Benchmarks
P/FCFE, Competitors¹
Linde plc	26.52
Sherwin-Williams Co.	42.38
P/FCFE, Sector
Chemicals	32.63
P/FCFE, Industry
Materials	26.54

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31).

¹ Click competitor name to see calculations.

If the company P/FCFE is lower then the P/FCFE of benchmark then company is relatively undervalued.
Otherwise, if the company P/FCFE is higher then the P/FCFE of benchmark then company is relatively overvalued.

Mosaic Co., historical P/FCFE calculation, comparison to benchmarks

	Dec 31, 2021	Dec 31, 2020	Dec 31, 2019	Dec 31, 2018	Dec 31, 2017
No. shares of common stock outstanding¹	368,309,275	379,093,342	378,764,442	385,470,499	385,226,223
Selected Financial Data (US$)
Free cash flow to equity (FCFE) (in thousands)²	687,100)	209,600)	(41,200)	(225,600)	1,527,500)
FCFE per share³	1.87	0.55	-0.11	-0.59	3.97
Share price^1, 4	45.20	29.70	18.47	28.75	27.46
Valuation Ratio
P/FCFE⁵	24.23	53.72	—	—	6.93
Benchmarks
P/FCFE, Competitors⁶
Linde plc	24.31	24.61	—	—	—
Sherwin-Williams Co.	21.76	23.93	—	—	—
P/FCFE, Sector
Chemicals	23.44	—	—	—	—
P/FCFE, Industry
Materials	19.23	—	—	—	—

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2018-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2017-12-31).

¹ Data adjusted for splits and stock dividends.

² See details »

³ 2021 Calculation
FCFE per share = FCFE ÷ No. shares of common stock outstanding
= 687,100,000 ÷ 368,309,275 = 1.87

⁴ Closing price as at the filing date of Mosaic Co. Annual Report.

⁵ 2021 Calculation
P/FCFE = Share price ÷ FCFE per share
= 45.20 ÷ 1.87 = 24.23

⁶ Click competitor name to see calculations.

Share Price Trend: The share price exhibited fluctuations over the five-year period. Initially, it increased moderately from $27.46 at the end of 2017 to $28.75 in 2018. However, in 2019, the share price declined significantly to $18.47, representing a notable drop. This was followed by a recovery phase where the share price rose sharply to $29.70 in 2020 and continued its upward trajectory, reaching $45.20 by the end of 2021. Overall, despite the downturn in 2019, the share price demonstrated a strong recovery and growth by 2021.
FCFE per Share Analysis: Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) per share showed considerable volatility. Starting at $3.97 in 2017, it dropped sharply to -$0.59 in 2018, indicating negative cash flow available to equity holders that year. In 2019, the value improved somewhat but remained negative at -$0.11. From 2020 onwards, FCFE per share returned to positive territory, increasing to $0.55 and further to $1.87 in 2021. This indicates a recovery in the company’s cash-generating ability available to equity shareholders after two years of negative results.
P/FCFE Ratio Insights: The price-to-free cash flow to equity (P/FCFE) ratio data is incomplete, but observable points provide useful insights. The ratio was 6.93 in 2017, suggesting the stock was relatively undervalued or the company was generating strong cash flow relative to its share price. The ratio is missing for 2018 and 2019, likely due to negative FCFE values which render the ratio less meaningful or undefined. In 2020, the P/FCFE ratio surged significantly to 53.72, possibly reflecting investor optimism despite relatively low positive FCFE per share. By 2021, the ratio decreased to 24.23, indicating a partial correction or improved cash flow per share relative to the share price increase.
Overall Financial Trends and Implications: The company faced a challenging period from 2018 to 2019, with negative FCFE per share and a declining share price in 2019. The subsequent recovery in both share price and FCFE per share from 2020 onwards reflects an improvement in financial health and market sentiment. The P/FCFE ratio's volatility emphasizes caution in valuation interpretation during periods of negative or rapidly changing free cash flow. The sustained increase in share price through 2021 suggests positive investor confidence correlating with improving financial performance.

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Mosaic Co. (NYSE:MOS)

Price to FCFE (P/FCFE)

Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE)

Price to FCFE Ratio, Current

Price to FCFE Ratio, Historical