Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.42% per annum.
- SYY price at the close of August 28, 2024 was $76.15 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 93.41% per annum.
- SYY price at the close of August 28, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SYY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 22, 2021
End date: August 28, 2024
a = 4.3080
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0601
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.42%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0601) – 1
= 27.16%
February 22, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y372)
= Exp(a + b × X372 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 543 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3080 + 0.0000 × 543 + 2 × 0.0601)
= Exp(4.4219)
= $83.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y372)
= Exp(a + b × X372 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 543 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3080 + 0.0000 × 543 – 2 × 0.0601)
= Exp(4.1816)
= $65.47
August 28, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3080 + 0.0000 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0601)
= Exp(4.4071)
= $82.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3080 + 0.0000 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0601)
= Exp(4.1668)
= $64.51
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.42% per annum.
- SYY price at the close of August 28, 2024 was $76.15 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 28, 2024
End date: August 28, 2024
a = 1.0500
b = 0.0018
s = 0.0165
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 93.41%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0165) – 1
= 6.80%
June 28, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,215)
= Exp(a + b × X1,215 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,765 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0500 + 0.0018 × 1,765 + 2 × 0.0165)
= Exp(4.2727)
= $71.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,215)
= Exp(a + b × X1,215 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,765 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0500 + 0.0018 × 1,765 – 2 × 0.0165)
= Exp(4.2069)
= $67.15
August 28, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0500 + 0.0018 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0165)
= Exp(4.3829)
= $80.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0500 + 0.0018 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0165)
= Exp(4.3171)
= $74.97
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 93.41% per annum.
- SYY price at the close of August 28, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Check current SYY price trends.
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