Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 27.24% per annum.
- WMT price at the close of October 16, 2026 was $118.81 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.68 (5.02%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2,141.81% per annum.
- WMT price at the close of October 16, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WMT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 3, 2026
End date: October 8, 2026
a = 5.0481
b = -0.0009
s = 0.0367
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -27.24%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0367) – 1
= 15.79%
February 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y135)
= Exp(a + b × X135 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 196 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0481 + -0.0009 × 196 + 2 × 0.0367)
= Exp(4.9507)
= $141.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y135)
= Exp(a + b × X135 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 196 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0481 + -0.0009 × 196 – 2 × 0.0367)
= Exp(4.8041)
= $122.00
October 8, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y306)
= Exp(a + b × X306 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 443 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0481 + -0.0009 × 443 + 2 × 0.0367)
= Exp(4.7355)
= $113.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y306)
= Exp(a + b × X306 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 443 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0481 + -0.0009 × 443 – 2 × 0.0367)
= Exp(4.5889)
= $98.39
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 27.24% per annum.
- WMT price at the close of October 16, 2026 was $118.81 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.68 (5.02%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 30, 2026
End date: October 16, 2026
a = 0.9245
b = 0.0085
s = 0.0115
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0085) – 1
= 2,141.81%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0115) – 1
= 4.69%
September 30, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y300)
= Exp(a + b × X300 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 435 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9245 + 0.0085 × 435 + 2 × 0.0115)
= Exp(4.6537)
= $104.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y300)
= Exp(a + b × X300 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 435 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9245 + 0.0085 × 435 – 2 × 0.0115)
= Exp(4.6078)
= $100.26
October 16, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y312)
= Exp(a + b × X312 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 451 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9245 + 0.0085 × 451 + 2 × 0.0115)
= Exp(4.7900)
= $120.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y312)
= Exp(a + b × X312 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 451 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9245 + 0.0085 × 451 – 2 × 0.0115)
= Exp(4.7441)
= $114.91
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2,141.81% per annum.
- WMT price at the close of October 16, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.