Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 51.32% per annum.
- COST price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $975.48 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $35.38 (3.50%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 24.17% per annum.
- COST price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of COST price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 15, 2022
End date: March 6, 2025
a = 4.9491
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0498
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 51.32%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0498) – 1
= 22.02%
December 15, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y666)
= Exp(a + b × X666 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 962 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9491 + 0.0011 × 962 + 2 × 0.0498)
= Exp(6.1404)
= $464.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y666)
= Exp(a + b × X666 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 962 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9491 + 0.0011 × 962 – 2 × 0.0498)
= Exp(5.9414)
= $380.46
March 6, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,221)
= Exp(a + b × X1,221 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,774 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9491 + 0.0011 × 1,774 + 2 × 0.0498)
= Exp(7.0620)
= $1,166.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,221)
= Exp(a + b × X1,221 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,774 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9491 + 0.0011 × 1,774 – 2 × 0.0498)
= Exp(6.8629)
= $956.18
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 51.32% per annum.
- COST price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $975.48 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $35.38 (3.50%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 16, 2024
End date: April 24, 2025
a = 5.8337
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0420
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 24.17%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0420) – 1
= 18.29%
May 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,021)
= Exp(a + b × X1,021 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,480 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8337 + 0.0006 × 1,480 + 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(6.7953)
= $893.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,021)
= Exp(a + b × X1,021 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,480 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8337 + 0.0006 × 1,480 – 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(6.6273)
= $755.46
April 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8337 + 0.0006 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(6.9987)
= $1,095.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8337 + 0.0006 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(6.8307)
= $925.87
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 24.17% per annum.
- COST price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
Check out COST and 1,499 other stocks on our new website