Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 159.50% per annum.
- EXPE price at the close of May 3, 2022 was $150.31 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $233.55 (60.84%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.43% per annum.
- EXPE price at the close of May 3, 2022 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $7.71 (4.88%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of EXPE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 9, 2020
End date: June 11, 2021
a = 1.3655
b = 0.0026
s = 0.0916
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0026) – 1
= 159.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0916) – 1
= 44.24%
March 9, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y715)
= Exp(a + b × X715 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,040 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3655 + 0.0026 × 1,040 + 2 × 0.0916)
= Exp(4.2657)
= $71.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y715)
= Exp(a + b × X715 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,040 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3655 + 0.0026 × 1,040 – 2 × 0.0916)
= Exp(3.8994)
= $49.37
June 11, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,033)
= Exp(a + b × X1,033 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,499 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3655 + 0.0026 × 1,499 + 2 × 0.0916)
= Exp(5.4649)
= $236.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,033)
= Exp(a + b × X1,033 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,499 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3655 + 0.0026 × 1,499 – 2 × 0.0916)
= Exp(5.0986)
= $163.79
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 159.50% per annum.
- EXPE price at the close of May 3, 2022 was $150.31 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $233.55 (60.84%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 4, 2021
End date: May 2, 2022
a = 4.6233
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0733
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 12.43%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0733) – 1
= 34.06%
February 4, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y945)
= Exp(a + b × X945 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,372 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6233 + 0.0003 × 1,372 + 2 × 0.0733)
= Exp(5.2104)
= $183.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y945)
= Exp(a + b × X945 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,372 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6233 + 0.0003 × 1,372 – 2 × 0.0733)
= Exp(4.9173)
= $136.63
May 2, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6233 + 0.0003 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0733)
= Exp(5.3555)
= $211.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6233 + 0.0003 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0733)
= Exp(5.0624)
= $157.97
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.43% per annum.
- EXPE price at the close of May 3, 2022 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $7.71 (4.88%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Check current EXPE price trends.
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