Stock Analysis on Net

Moderna Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA)

Present Value of Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF)

Microsoft Excel

Intrinsic Stock Value (Valuation Summary)

Moderna Inc., free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) forecast

US$ in millions, except per share data

Microsoft Excel
Year Value FCFFt or Terminal value (TVt) Calculation Present value at 19.78%
01 FCFF0 -3,794
1 FCFF1 = -3,794 × (1 + 0.00%)
2 FCFF2 = × (1 + 0.00%)
3 FCFF3 = × (1 + 0.00%)
4 FCFF4 = × (1 + 0.00%)
5 FCFF5 = × (1 + 0.00%)
5 Terminal value (TV5) = × (1 + 0.00%) ÷ (19.78%0.00%)
Intrinsic value of Moderna Inc. capital
Less: Financing lease liabilities (fair value) 575
Intrinsic value of Moderna Inc. common stock
 
Intrinsic value of Moderna Inc. common stock (per share) $—
Current share price $53.54

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31).

Disclaimer!
Valuation is based on standard assumptions. There may exist specific factors relevant to stock value and omitted here. In such a case, the real stock value may differ significantly form the estimated. If you want to use the estimated intrinsic stock value in investment decision making process, do so at your own risk.


Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

Moderna Inc., cost of capital

Microsoft Excel
Value1 Weight Required rate of return2 Calculation
Equity (fair value) 20,581 0.97 20.23%
Financing lease liabilities (fair value) 575 0.03 3.67% = 4.20% × (1 – 12.56%)

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31).

1 US$ in millions

   Equity (fair value) = No. shares of common stock outstanding × Current share price
= 384,396,030 × $53.54
= $20,580,563,446.20

   Financing lease liabilities (fair value). See details »

2 Required rate of return on equity is estimated by using CAPM. See details »

   Required rate of return on debt. See details »

   Required rate of return on debt is after tax.

   Estimated (average) effective income tax rate
= (21.00% + 12.70% + 8.10% + 21.00% + 0.00%) ÷ 5
= 12.56%

WACC = 19.78%


FCFF Growth Rate (g)

FCFF growth rate (g) implied by PRAT model

Moderna Inc., PRAT model

Microsoft Excel
Average Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019
Selected Financial Data (US$ in millions)
Interest expense 38 29 18 10 7
Net income (loss) (4,714) 8,362 12,202 (747) (514)
 
Effective income tax rate (EITR)1 21.00% 12.70% 8.10% 21.00% 0.00%
 
Interest expense, after tax2 30 25 17 8 7
Interest expense (after tax) and dividends 30 25 17 8 7
 
EBIT(1 – EITR)3 (4,684) 8,387 12,219 (739) (507)
 
Financing lease liabilities, current 161 165 24
Financing lease liabilities, non-current 575 912 599 110 39
Stockholders’ equity 13,854 19,123 14,145 2,561 1,175
Total capital 14,429 20,196 14,909 2,696 1,213
Financial Ratios
Retention rate (RR)4 1.00 1.00
Return on invested capital (ROIC)5 -32.46% 41.53% 81.95% -27.42% -41.81%
Averages
RR 1.00
ROIC 4.36%
 
FCFF growth rate (g)6 0.00%

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).

1 See details »

2023 Calculations

2 Interest expense, after tax = Interest expense × (1 – EITR)
= 38 × (1 – 21.00%)
= 30

3 EBIT(1 – EITR) = Net income (loss) + Interest expense, after tax
= -4,714 + 30
= -4,684

4 RR = [EBIT(1 – EITR) – Interest expense (after tax) and dividends] ÷ EBIT(1 – EITR)
= [-4,68430] ÷ -4,684
=

5 ROIC = 100 × EBIT(1 – EITR) ÷ Total capital
= 100 × -4,684 ÷ 14,429
= -32.46%

6 g = RR × ROIC
= 1.00 × 4.36%
= 0.00%


FCFF growth rate (g) forecast

Moderna Inc., H-model

Microsoft Excel
Year Value gt
1 g1 0.00%
2 g2 0.00%
3 g3 0.00%
4 g4 0.00%
5 and thereafter g5 0.00%

where:
g1 is implied by PRAT model
g5 is implied by single-stage model
g2, g3 and g4 are calculated using linear interpoltion between g1 and g5

Calculations

g2 = g1 + (g5g1) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 0.00% + (0.00%0.00%) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 0.00%

g3 = g1 + (g5g1) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 0.00% + (0.00%0.00%) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 0.00%

g4 = g1 + (g5g1) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 0.00% + (0.00%0.00%) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 0.00%