Stock Analysis on Net

Moderna Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA)

Stock Price Trends


Summary

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 31.76% per annum.
  • MRNA price at the close of November 4, 2024 was $53.54 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 93.14% per annum.
  • MRNA price at the close of November 4, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MRNA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: June 4, 2021
End date: November 4, 2024

a = 6.2240

b = -0.0010

s = 0.2503

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -31.76%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2503) – 1
= 172.15%

June 4, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y397)
= Exp(a + b × X397 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 577 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2240 + -0.0010 × 577 + 2 × 0.2503)
= Exp(6.1204)
= $455.05

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y397)
= Exp(a + b × X397 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 577 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2240 + -0.0010 × 577 – 2 × 0.2503)
= Exp(5.1192)
= $167.21

November 4, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2240 + -0.0010 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.2503)
= Exp(4.8127)
= $123.06

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2240 + -0.0010 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.2503)
= Exp(3.8115)
= $45.22

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 31.76% per annum.
  • MRNA price at the close of November 4, 2024 was $53.54 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 22, 2024
End date: November 4, 2024

a = 17.2997

b = -0.0073

s = 0.0686

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0073) – 1
= -93.14%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0686) – 1
= 31.59%

May 22, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,143)
= Exp(a + b × X1,143 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,660 + 2 × s)
= Exp(17.2997 + -0.0073 × 1,660 + 2 × 0.0686)
= Exp(5.2536)
= $191.26

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,143)
= Exp(a + b × X1,143 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,660 – 2 × s)
= Exp(17.2997 + -0.0073 × 1,660 – 2 × 0.0686)
= Exp(4.9791)
= $145.35

November 4, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(17.2997 + -0.0073 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0686)
= Exp(4.0353)
= $56.56

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(17.2997 + -0.0073 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0686)
= Exp(3.7608)
= $42.98

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 93.14% per annum.
  • MRNA price at the close of November 4, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
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