Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 31.76% per annum.
- MRNA price at the close of November 4, 2024 was $53.54 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 93.14% per annum.
- MRNA price at the close of November 4, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MRNA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 4, 2021
End date: November 4, 2024
a = 6.2240
b = -0.0010
s = 0.2503
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -31.76%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2503) – 1
= 172.15%
June 4, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y397)
= Exp(a + b × X397 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 577 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2240 + -0.0010 × 577 + 2 × 0.2503)
= Exp(6.1204)
= $455.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y397)
= Exp(a + b × X397 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 577 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2240 + -0.0010 × 577 – 2 × 0.2503)
= Exp(5.1192)
= $167.21
November 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2240 + -0.0010 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.2503)
= Exp(4.8127)
= $123.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2240 + -0.0010 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.2503)
= Exp(3.8115)
= $45.22
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 31.76% per annum.
- MRNA price at the close of November 4, 2024 was $53.54 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 22, 2024
End date: November 4, 2024
a = 17.2997
b = -0.0073
s = 0.0686
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0073) – 1
= -93.14%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0686) – 1
= 31.59%
May 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,143)
= Exp(a + b × X1,143 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,660 + 2 × s)
= Exp(17.2997 + -0.0073 × 1,660 + 2 × 0.0686)
= Exp(5.2536)
= $191.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,143)
= Exp(a + b × X1,143 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,660 – 2 × s)
= Exp(17.2997 + -0.0073 × 1,660 – 2 × 0.0686)
= Exp(4.9791)
= $145.35
November 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(17.2997 + -0.0073 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0686)
= Exp(4.0353)
= $56.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(17.2997 + -0.0073 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0686)
= Exp(3.7608)
= $42.98
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 93.14% per annum.
- MRNA price at the close of November 4, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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