Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 31.91% per annum.
- MRNA price at the close of November 7, 2024 was $50.28 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 93.00% per annum.
- MRNA price at the close of November 7, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MRNA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 4, 2021
End date: November 7, 2024
a = 6.2267
b = -0.0011
s = 0.2508
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -31.91%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2508) – 1
= 172.66%
June 4, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y394)
= Exp(a + b × X394 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 574 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2267 + -0.0011 × 574 + 2 × 0.2508)
= Exp(6.1238)
= $456.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y394)
= Exp(a + b × X394 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 574 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2267 + -0.0011 × 574 – 2 × 0.2508)
= Exp(5.1208)
= $167.47
November 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2267 + -0.0011 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.2508)
= Exp(4.8055)
= $122.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2267 + -0.0011 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.2508)
= Exp(3.8024)
= $44.81
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 31.91% per annum.
- MRNA price at the close of November 7, 2024 was $50.28 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 22, 2024
End date: November 7, 2024
a = 17.1838
b = -0.0073
s = 0.0685
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0073) – 1
= -93.00%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0685) – 1
= 31.52%
May 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,140)
= Exp(a + b × X1,140 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,657 + 2 × s)
= Exp(17.1838 + -0.0073 × 1,657 + 2 × 0.0685)
= Exp(5.2503)
= $190.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,140)
= Exp(a + b × X1,140 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,657 – 2 × s)
= Exp(17.1838 + -0.0073 × 1,657 – 2 × 0.0685)
= Exp(4.9763)
= $144.94
November 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(17.1838 + -0.0073 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0685)
= Exp(4.0192)
= $55.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(17.1838 + -0.0073 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0685)
= Exp(3.7452)
= $42.32
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 93.00% per annum.
- MRNA price at the close of November 7, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
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