Stock Analysis on Net

Moderna Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA)

Economic Value Added (EVA)

Microsoft Excel

Economic Profit

Moderna Inc., economic profit calculation

US$ in millions

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019
Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT)1 (5,414) 3,520 14,737 3,091 (605)
Cost of capital2 19.61% 19.74% 19.86% 20.07% 19.96%
Invested capital3 5,263 7,126 10,693 4,183 481
 
Economic profit4 (6,446) 2,113 12,614 2,251 (701)

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).

1 NOPAT. See details »

2 Cost of capital. See details »

3 Invested capital. See details »

4 2023 Calculation
Economic profit = NOPAT – Cost of capital × Invested capital
= -5,41419.61% × 5,263 = -6,446

Item Description The company
Economic profit Economic profit is a measure of corporate performance computed by taking the spread between the return on invested capital and the cost of capital, and multiplying by the invested capital. Moderna Inc. economic profit decreased from 2021 to 2022 and from 2022 to 2023.

Net Operating Profit after Taxes (NOPAT)

Moderna Inc., NOPAT calculation

US$ in millions

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019
Net income (loss) (4,714) 8,362 12,202 (747) (514)
Deferred income tax expense (benefit)1 901 (578) (296) (1)
Increase (decrease) in wholesalers chargebacks, discounts and fees2 692
Increase (decrease) in deferred revenue3 (2,060) (4,157) 2,824 3,842 (72)
Increase (decrease) in equity equivalents4 (467) (4,735) 2,528 3,842 (73)
Interest expense 38 29 18 10 7
Interest expense, operating lease liability5 50 10 10 11 9
Adjusted interest expense 88 39 28 21 16
Tax benefit of interest expense6 (19) (8) (6) (4) (3)
Adjusted interest expense, after taxes7 70 30 22 16 13
(Gain) loss on marketable securities 38 26 (1) (1)
Interest income (421) (200) (18) (25) (39)
Investment income, before taxes (383) (174) (19) (26) (39)
Tax expense (benefit) of investment income8 80 37 4 5 8
Investment income, after taxes9 (303) (137) (15) (21) (31)
Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT) (5,414) 3,520 14,737 3,091 (605)

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).

1 Elimination of deferred tax expense. See details »

2 Addition of increase (decrease) in wholesalers chargebacks, discounts and fees.

3 Addition of increase (decrease) in deferred revenue.

4 Addition of increase (decrease) in equity equivalents to net income (loss).

5 2023 Calculation
Interest expense on capitalized operating leases = Operating lease liability × Discount rate
= 668 × 7.50% = 50

6 2023 Calculation
Tax benefit of interest expense = Adjusted interest expense × Statutory income tax rate
= 88 × 21.00% = 19

7 Addition of after taxes interest expense to net income (loss).

8 2023 Calculation
Tax expense (benefit) of investment income = Investment income, before tax × Statutory income tax rate
= 383 × 21.00% = 80

9 Elimination of after taxes investment income.

Item Description The company
NOPAT Net operating profit after taxes is income from operations, but after removement of taxes calculated on cash basis that are relevant to operating income. Moderna Inc. NOPAT decreased from 2021 to 2022 and from 2022 to 2023.

Cash Operating Taxes

Moderna Inc., cash operating taxes calculation

US$ in millions

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019
Provision for (benefit from) income taxes 772 1,213 1,083 3 (1)
Less: Deferred income tax expense (benefit) 901 (578) (296) (1)
Add: Tax savings from interest expense 19 8 6 4 3
Less: Tax imposed on investment income 80 37 4 5 8
Cash operating taxes (191) 1,763 1,381 1 (4)

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).

Item Description The company
Cash operating taxes Cash operating taxes are estimated by adjusting income tax expense for changes in deferred taxes and tax benefit from the interest deduction. Moderna Inc. cash operating taxes increased from 2021 to 2022 but then decreased significantly from 2022 to 2023.

Invested Capital

Moderna Inc., invested capital calculation (financing approach)

US$ in millions

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019
Financing lease liabilities, current 161 165 24
Financing lease liabilities, non-current 575 912 599 110 39
Operating lease liability1 668 127 152 103 97
Total reported debt & leases 1,243 1,200 916 238 136
Stockholders’ equity 13,854 19,123 14,145 2,561 1,175
Net deferred tax (assets) liabilities2 (66) (982) (326)
Wholesalers chargebacks, discounts and fees3 692
Deferred revenue4 651 2,711 6,868 4,045 202
Equity equivalents5 1,277 1,729 6,542 4,045 202
Accumulated other comprehensive (income) loss, net of tax6 123 370 24 (3) (2)
Adjusted stockholders’ equity 15,254 21,222 20,711 6,603 1,375
Construction in progress7 (860) (281) (212) (35) (3)
Marketable securities8 (10,374) (15,015) (10,722) (2,623) (1,027)
Invested capital 5,263 7,126 10,693 4,183 481

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).

1 Addition of capitalized operating leases.

2 Elimination of deferred taxes from assets and liabilities. See details »

3 Addition of allowance for doubtful accounts receivable.

4 Addition of deferred revenue.

5 Addition of equity equivalents to stockholders’ equity.

6 Removal of accumulated other comprehensive income.

7 Subtraction of construction in progress.

8 Subtraction of marketable securities.

Item Description The company
Invested capital Capital is an approximation of the economic book value of all cash invested in going-concern business activities. Moderna Inc. invested capital decreased from 2021 to 2022 and from 2022 to 2023.

Cost of Capital

Moderna Inc., cost of capital calculations

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 36,855 36,855 ÷ 38,098 = 0.97 0.97 × 20.11% = 19.46%
Financing lease liabilities3 575 575 ÷ 38,098 = 0.02 0.02 × 4.20% × (1 – 21.00%) = 0.05%
Operating lease liability4 668 668 ÷ 38,098 = 0.02 0.02 × 7.50% × (1 – 21.00%) = 0.10%
Total: 38,098 1.00 19.61%

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Financing lease liabilities. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 53,802 53,802 ÷ 55,002 = 0.98 0.98 × 20.11% = 19.68%
Financing lease liabilities3 1,073 1,073 ÷ 55,002 = 0.02 0.02 × 3.60% × (1 – 21.00%) = 0.06%
Operating lease liability4 127 127 ÷ 55,002 = 0.00 0.00 × 7.50% × (1 – 21.00%) = 0.01%
Total: 55,002 1.00 19.74%

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Financing lease liabilities. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 60,967 60,967 ÷ 61,883 = 0.99 0.99 × 20.11% = 19.82%
Financing lease liabilities3 764 764 ÷ 61,883 = 0.01 0.01 × 3.10% × (1 – 21.00%) = 0.03%
Operating lease liability4 152 152 ÷ 61,883 = 0.00 0.00 × 6.80% × (1 – 21.00%) = 0.01%
Total: 61,883 1.00 19.86%

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Financing lease liabilities. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 61,888 61,888 ÷ 62,126 = 1.00 1.00 × 20.11% = 20.04%
Financing lease liabilities3 134 134 ÷ 62,126 = 0.00 0.00 × 13.10% × (1 – 21.00%) = 0.02%
Operating lease liability4 103 103 ÷ 62,126 = 0.00 0.00 × 10.30% × (1 – 21.00%) = 0.01%
Total: 62,126 1.00 20.07%

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Financing lease liabilities. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 9,644 9,644 ÷ 9,780 = 0.99 0.99 × 20.11% = 19.83%
Financing lease liabilities3 39 39 ÷ 9,780 = 0.00 0.00 × 17.20% × (1 – 21.00%) = 0.05%
Operating lease liability4 97 97 ÷ 9,780 = 0.01 0.01 × 9.70% × (1 – 21.00%) = 0.08%
Total: 9,780 1.00 19.96%

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Financing lease liabilities. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »


Economic Spread Ratio

Moderna Inc., economic spread ratio calculation, comparison to benchmarks

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019
Selected Financial Data (US$ in millions)
Economic profit1 (6,446) 2,113 12,614 2,251 (701)
Invested capital2 5,263 7,126 10,693 4,183 481
Performance Ratio
Economic spread ratio3 -122.48% 29.65% 117.96% 53.81% -145.84%
Benchmarks
Economic Spread Ratio, Competitors4
AbbVie Inc. -4.02% 5.41% 4.79% -3.05% 7.22%
Amgen Inc. 2.73% 7.40% 7.38% 11.71% 13.91%
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. 2.02% -0.68% 1.57% -14.00% -3.67%
Danaher Corp. -7.76% -2.81% -2.15% -3.54% -6.94%
Eli Lilly & Co. 3.28% 10.61% 12.30% 18.96% 15.79%
Gilead Sciences Inc. 6.00% 2.49% 9.02% -4.04% 7.27%
Johnson & Johnson -0.01% 5.22% 10.28% 5.06% 3.97%
Merck & Co. Inc. -8.49% 11.70% 11.83% 4.67% 11.25%
Pfizer Inc. -8.95% 18.62% 11.78% -2.93% 5.68%
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. 21.20% 24.31% 67.31% 39.18% 28.44%
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. -4.66% -2.88% -1.05% -0.05% -3.94%

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).

1 Economic profit. See details »

2 Invested capital. See details »

3 2023 Calculation
Economic spread ratio = 100 × Economic profit ÷ Invested capital
= 100 × -6,446 ÷ 5,263 = -122.48%

4 Click competitor name to see calculations.

Performance ratio Description The company
Economic spread ratio The ratio of economic profit to invested capital, also equal to the difference between return on invested capital (ROIC) and cost of capital. Moderna Inc. economic spread ratio deteriorated from 2021 to 2022 and from 2022 to 2023.

Economic Profit Margin

Moderna Inc., economic profit margin calculation, comparison to benchmarks

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019
Selected Financial Data (US$ in millions)
Economic profit1 (6,446) 2,113 12,614 2,251 (701)
 
Net product sales 6,671 18,435 17,675 200
Add: Increase (decrease) in deferred revenue (2,060) (4,157) 2,824 3,842 (72)
Adjusted net product sales 4,611 14,278 20,499 4,042 (72)
Performance Ratio
Economic profit margin2 -139.80% 14.80% 61.53% 55.69%
Benchmarks
Economic Profit Margin, Competitors3
AbbVie Inc. -5.04% 7.65% 8.18% -6.92% 13.62%
Amgen Inc. 7.11% 11.85% 12.23% 18.72% 23.42%
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. 3.03% -1.06% 2.72% -29.68% -14.08%
Danaher Corp. -25.47% -6.97% -5.37% -10.39% -22.52%
Eli Lilly & Co. 2.82% 9.03% 11.36% 18.98% 15.21%
Gilead Sciences Inc. 10.21% 4.21% 15.96% -8.34% 10.34%
Johnson & Johnson -0.01% 6.26% 10.77% 6.03% 4.69%
Merck & Co. Inc. -9.88% 14.59% 17.18% 5.56% 12.89%
Pfizer Inc. -23.69% 20.56% 12.70% -7.26% 13.28%
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. 19.33% 24.48% 45.52% 38.18% 23.61%
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. -9.30% -5.31% -2.14% -0.10% -8.11%

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).

1 Economic profit. See details »

2 2023 Calculation
Economic profit margin = 100 × Economic profit ÷ Adjusted net product sales
= 100 × -6,446 ÷ 4,611 = -139.80%

3 Click competitor name to see calculations.

Performance ratio Description The company
Economic profit margin The ratio of economic profit to sales. It is the company profit margin covering income efficiency and asset management. Economic profit margin is not biased in favor of capital-intensive business models, because any added capital is a cost to the economic profit margin. Moderna Inc. economic profit margin deteriorated from 2021 to 2022 and from 2022 to 2023.