Stock Analysis on Net

Steel Dynamics Inc. (NASDAQ:STLD)

This company has been moved to the archive! The financial data has not been updated since October 26, 2022.

Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Microsoft Excel

In discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation techniques the value of the stock is estimated based upon present value of some measure of cash flow. Dividends are the cleanest and most straightforward measure of cash flow because these are clearly cash flows that go directly to the investor.


Intrinsic Stock Value (Valuation Summary)

Steel Dynamics Inc., dividends per share (DPS) forecast

US$

Microsoft Excel
Year Value DPSt or Terminal value (TVt) Calculation Present value at 18.26%
0 DPS01 1.04
1 DPS1 1.26 = 1.04 × (1 + 20.79%) 1.06
2 DPS2 1.51 = 1.26 × (1 + 19.85%) 1.08
3 DPS3 1.79 = 1.51 × (1 + 18.90%) 1.08
4 DPS4 2.11 = 1.79 × (1 + 17.96%) 1.08
5 DPS5 2.47 = 2.11 × (1 + 17.02%) 1.07
5 Terminal value (TV5) 232.95 = 2.47 × (1 + 17.02%) ÷ (18.26%17.02%) 100.72
Intrinsic value of Steel Dynamics Inc. common stock (per share) $106.09
Current share price $98.04

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31).

1 DPS0 = Sum of the last year dividends per share of Steel Dynamics Inc. common stock. See details »

Disclaimer!
Valuation is based on standard assumptions. There may exist specific factors relevant to stock value and omitted here. In such a case, the real stock value may differ significantly form the estimated. If you want to use the estimated intrinsic stock value in investment decision making process, do so at your own risk.


Required Rate of Return (r)

Microsoft Excel
Assumptions
Rate of return on LT Treasury Composite1 RF 4.68%
Expected rate of return on market portfolio2 E(RM) 13.79%
Systematic risk of Steel Dynamics Inc. common stock βSTLD 1.49
 
Required rate of return on Steel Dynamics Inc. common stock3 rSTLD 18.26%

1 Unweighted average of bid yields on all outstanding fixed-coupon U.S. Treasury bonds neither due or callable in less than 10 years (risk-free rate of return proxy).

2 See details »

3 rSTLD = RF + βSTLD [E(RM) – RF]
= 4.68% + 1.49 [13.79%4.68%]
= 18.26%


Dividend Growth Rate (g)

Dividend growth rate (g) implied by PRAT model

Steel Dynamics Inc., PRAT model

Microsoft Excel
Average Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019 Dec 31, 2018 Dec 31, 2017
Selected Financial Data (US$ in thousands)
Dividends declared 210,939 210,496 209,513 174,355 148,231
Net income attributable to Steel Dynamics, Inc. 3,214,066 550,822 671,103 1,258,379 812,741
Net sales 18,408,850 9,601,482 10,464,991 11,821,839 9,538,797
Total assets 12,531,234 9,265,562 8,275,765 7,703,563 6,855,732
Total Steel Dynamics, Inc. equity 6,304,641 4,345,164 4,075,834 3,935,071 3,351,574
Financial Ratios
Retention rate1 0.93 0.62 0.69 0.86 0.82
Profit margin2 17.46% 5.74% 6.41% 10.64% 8.52%
Asset turnover3 1.47 1.04 1.26 1.53 1.39
Financial leverage4 1.99 2.13 2.03 1.96 2.05
Averages
Retention rate 0.78
Profit margin 9.75%
Asset turnover 1.34
Financial leverage 2.03
 
Dividend growth rate (g)5 20.79%

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2018-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2017-12-31).

2021 Calculations

1 Retention rate = (Net income attributable to Steel Dynamics, Inc. – Dividends declared) ÷ Net income attributable to Steel Dynamics, Inc.
= (3,214,066210,939) ÷ 3,214,066
= 0.93

2 Profit margin = 100 × Net income attributable to Steel Dynamics, Inc. ÷ Net sales
= 100 × 3,214,066 ÷ 18,408,850
= 17.46%

3 Asset turnover = Net sales ÷ Total assets
= 18,408,850 ÷ 12,531,234
= 1.47

4 Financial leverage = Total assets ÷ Total Steel Dynamics, Inc. equity
= 12,531,234 ÷ 6,304,641
= 1.99

5 g = Retention rate × Profit margin × Asset turnover × Financial leverage
= 0.78 × 9.75% × 1.34 × 2.03
= 20.79%


Dividend growth rate (g) implied by Gordon growth model

g = 100 × (P0 × rD0) ÷ (P0 + D0)
= 100 × ($98.04 × 18.26%$1.04) ÷ ($98.04 + $1.04)
= 17.02%

where:
P0 = current price of share of Steel Dynamics Inc. common stock
D0 = the last year dividends per share of Steel Dynamics Inc. common stock
r = required rate of return on Steel Dynamics Inc. common stock


Dividend growth rate (g) forecast

Steel Dynamics Inc., H-model

Microsoft Excel
Year Value gt
1 g1 20.79%
2 g2 19.85%
3 g3 18.90%
4 g4 17.96%
5 and thereafter g5 17.02%

where:
g1 is implied by PRAT model
g5 is implied by Gordon growth model
g2, g3 and g4 are calculated using linear interpoltion between g1 and g5

Calculations

g2 = g1 + (g5g1) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 20.79% + (17.02%20.79%) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 19.85%

g3 = g1 + (g5g1) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 20.79% + (17.02%20.79%) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 18.90%

g4 = g1 + (g5g1) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 20.79% + (17.02%20.79%) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 17.96%