Stock Analysis on Net
Stock Analysis on Net

ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP)

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Present Value of Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF)

Microsoft Excel

In discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation techniques the value of the stock is estimated based upon present value of some measure of cash flow. Free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) is generally described as cash flows after direct costs and before any payments to capital suppliers.

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Intrinsic Stock Value (Valuation Summary)

ConocoPhillips, free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) forecast

US$ in millions, except per share data

Microsoft Excel
Year Value FCFFt or Terminal value (TVt) Calculation Present value at
01 FCFF0
1 FCFF1 = × (1 + )
2 FCFF2 = × (1 + )
3 FCFF3 = × (1 + )
4 FCFF4 = × (1 + )
5 FCFF5 = × (1 + )
5 Terminal value (TV5) = × (1 + ) ÷ ( – )
Intrinsic value of ConocoPhillips capital
Less: Debt, including finance leases (fair value)
Intrinsic value of ConocoPhillips common stock
 
Intrinsic value of ConocoPhillips common stock (per share)
Current share price

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31).

1 See details »

Disclaimer!
Valuation is based on standard assumptions. There may exist specific factors relevant to stock value and omitted here. In such a case, the real stock value may differ significantly form the estimated. If you want to use the estimated intrinsic stock value in investment decision making process, do so at your own risk.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

ConocoPhillips, cost of capital

Microsoft Excel
Value1 Weight Required rate of return2 Calculation
Equity (fair value)
Debt, including finance leases (fair value) = × (1 – )

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31).

1 US$ in millions

   Equity (fair value) = No. shares of common stock outstanding × Current share price
= ×
=

   Debt, including finance leases (fair value). See details »

2 Required rate of return on equity is estimated by using CAPM. See details »

   Required rate of return on debt. See details »

   Required rate of return on debt is after tax.

   Estimated (average) effective income tax rate
= ( + + + + ) ÷ 5
=

WACC =

FCFF Growth Rate (g)

FCFF growth rate (g) implied by PRAT model

ConocoPhillips, PRAT model

Microsoft Excel
Average Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019
Selected Financial Data (US$ in millions)
Interest and debt expense
Net income (loss) attributable to ConocoPhillips
 
Effective income tax rate (EITR)1
 
Interest and debt expense, after tax2
Add: Dividends declared
Interest expense (after tax) and dividends
 
EBIT(1 – EITR)3
 
Short-term debt
Long-term debt
Common stockholders’ equity
Total capital
Financial Ratios
Retention rate (RR)4
Return on invested capital (ROIC)5
Averages
RR
ROIC
 
FCFF growth rate (g)6

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).

1 See details »

2023 Calculations

2 Interest and debt expense, after tax = Interest and debt expense × (1 – EITR)
= × (1 – )
=

3 EBIT(1 – EITR) = Net income (loss) attributable to ConocoPhillips + Interest and debt expense, after tax
= +
=

4 RR = [EBIT(1 – EITR) – Interest expense (after tax) and dividends] ÷ EBIT(1 – EITR)
= [ – ] ÷
=

5 ROIC = 100 × EBIT(1 – EITR) ÷ Total capital
= 100 × ÷
=

6 g = RR × ROIC
= ×
=

FCFF growth rate (g) implied by single-stage model

g = 100 × (Total capital, fair value0 × WACC – FCFF0) ÷ (Total capital, fair value0 + FCFF0)
= 100 × ( × – ) ÷ ( + )
=

where:

Total capital, fair value0 = current fair value of ConocoPhillips debt and equity (US$ in millions)
FCFF0 = the last year ConocoPhillips free cash flow to the firm (US$ in millions)
WACC = weighted average cost of ConocoPhillips capital

FCFF growth rate (g) forecast

ConocoPhillips, H-model

Microsoft Excel
Year Value gt
1 g1
2 g2
3 g3
4 g4
5 and thereafter g5

where:
g1 is implied by PRAT model
g5 is implied by single-stage model
g2, g3 and g4 are calculated using linear interpoltion between g1 and g5

Calculations

g2 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= + ( – ) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
=

g3 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= + ( – ) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
=

g4 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= + ( – ) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
=