Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 40.31% per annum.
- DG price at the close of August 29, 2024 was $83.44 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 77.38% per annum.
- DG price at the close of August 29, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $86.18 (50.81%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 6, 2022
End date: February 15, 2024
a = 7.0703
b = -0.0014
s = 0.1266
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -40.31%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1266) – 1
= 65.91%
June 6, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y696)
= Exp(a + b × X696 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,011 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0703 + -0.0014 × 1,011 + 2 × 0.1266)
= Exp(5.8940)
= $362.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y696)
= Exp(a + b × X696 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,011 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0703 + -0.0014 × 1,011 – 2 × 0.1266)
= Exp(5.3877)
= $218.71
February 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,122)
= Exp(a + b × X1,122 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,630 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0703 + -0.0014 × 1,630 + 2 × 0.1266)
= Exp(5.0188)
= $151.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,122)
= Exp(a + b × X1,122 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,630 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0703 + -0.0014 × 1,630 – 2 × 0.1266)
= Exp(4.5125)
= $91.15
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 40.31% per annum.
- DG price at the close of August 29, 2024 was $83.44 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 31, 2023
End date: April 19, 2024
a = 2.3765
b = 0.0016
s = 0.0551
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 77.38%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0551) – 1
= 24.65%
August 31, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,007)
= Exp(a + b × X1,007 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,462 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3765 + 0.0016 × 1,462 + 2 × 0.0551)
= Exp(4.7824)
= $119.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,007)
= Exp(a + b × X1,007 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,462 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3765 + 0.0016 × 1,462 – 2 × 0.0551)
= Exp(4.5620)
= $95.77
April 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,166)
= Exp(a + b × X1,166 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,694 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3765 + 0.0016 × 1,694 + 2 × 0.0551)
= Exp(5.1467)
= $171.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,166)
= Exp(a + b × X1,166 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,694 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3765 + 0.0016 × 1,694 – 2 × 0.0551)
= Exp(4.9263)
= $137.87
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 77.38% per annum.
- DG price at the close of August 29, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $86.18 (50.81%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Check current DG price trends.
Visit our new 1,500-company website