Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.57% per annum.
- ELV price at the close of February 20, 2025 was $390.50 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $23.41 (5.66%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 46.54% per annum.
- ELV price at the close of February 20, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ELV price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 15, 2021
End date: January 30, 2024
a = 6.1498
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0478
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.57%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0478) – 1
= 21.08%
December 15, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y459)
= Exp(a + b × X459 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 663 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1498 + 0.0000 × 663 + 2 × 0.0478)
= Exp(6.2351)
= $510.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y459)
= Exp(a + b × X459 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 663 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1498 + 0.0000 × 663 – 2 × 0.0478)
= Exp(6.0438)
= $421.48
January 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y991)
= Exp(a + b × X991 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,439 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1498 + 0.0000 × 1,439 + 2 × 0.0478)
= Exp(6.2230)
= $504.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y991)
= Exp(a + b × X991 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,439 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1498 + 0.0000 × 1,439 – 2 × 0.0478)
= Exp(6.0317)
= $416.41
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.57% per annum.
- ELV price at the close of February 20, 2025 was $390.50 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $23.41 (5.66%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 31, 2024
End date: February 20, 2025
a = 9.0358
b = -0.0017
s = 0.0687
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0017) – 1
= -46.54%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0687) – 1
= 31.61%
May 31, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,076)
= Exp(a + b × X1,076 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,561 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.0358 + -0.0017 × 1,561 + 2 × 0.0687)
= Exp(6.4953)
= $662.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,076)
= Exp(a + b × X1,076 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,561 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.0358 + -0.0017 × 1,561 – 2 × 0.0687)
= Exp(6.2206)
= $503.02
February 20, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.0358 + -0.0017 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0687)
= Exp(6.0407)
= $420.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.0358 + -0.0017 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0687)
= Exp(5.7660)
= $319.26
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 46.54% per annum.
- ELV price at the close of February 20, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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