Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 47.12% per annum.
- UNH price at the close of September 24, 2026 was $375.01 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 69.18% per annum.
- UNH price at the close of September 24, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UNH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 7, 2026
End date: September 24, 2026
a = 6.6313
b = -0.0017
s = 0.0151
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0017) – 1
= -47.12%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0151) – 1
= 6.24%
July 7, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y222)
= Exp(a + b × X222 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 326 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6313 + -0.0017 × 326 + 2 × 0.0151)
= Exp(6.0926)
= $442.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y222)
= Exp(a + b × X222 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 326 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6313 + -0.0017 × 326 – 2 × 0.0151)
= Exp(6.0321)
= $416.57
September 24, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y278)
= Exp(a + b × X278 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 405 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6313 + -0.0017 × 405 + 2 × 0.0151)
= Exp(5.9547)
= $385.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y278)
= Exp(a + b × X278 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 405 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6313 + -0.0017 × 405 – 2 × 0.0151)
= Exp(5.8942)
= $362.91
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 47.12% per annum.
- UNH price at the close of September 24, 2026 was $375.01 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 2, 2026
End date: September 24, 2026
a = 7.2197
b = -0.0032
s = 0.0115
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0032) – 1
= -69.18%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0115) – 1
= 4.70%
September 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y263)
= Exp(a + b × X263 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 383 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2197 + -0.0032 × 383 + 2 × 0.0115)
= Exp(6.0076)
= $406.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y263)
= Exp(a + b × X263 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 383 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2197 + -0.0032 × 383 – 2 × 0.0115)
= Exp(5.9617)
= $388.29
September 24, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y278)
= Exp(a + b × X278 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 405 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2197 + -0.0032 × 405 + 2 × 0.0115)
= Exp(5.9367)
= $378.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y278)
= Exp(a + b × X278 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 405 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2197 + -0.0032 × 405 – 2 × 0.0115)
= Exp(5.8908)
= $361.70
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 69.18% per annum.
- UNH price at the close of September 24, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.