Stock Analysis on Net

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE:FCX)

Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)

Microsoft Excel

Capital asset pricing model (CAPM) indicates what should be the expected or required rate of return on risky assets like Freeport-McMoRan Inc. common stock.


Rates of Return

Freeport-McMoRan Inc., monthly rates of return

Microsoft Excel
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500)
t Date PriceFCX,t1 DividendFCX,t1 RFCX,t2 PriceS&P 500,t RS&P 500,t3
Jan 31, 2019 $11.64 2,704.10
1. Feb 28, 2019 $12.90 10.82% 2,784.49 2.97%
2. Mar 31, 2019 $12.89 -0.08% 2,834.40 1.79%
3. Apr 30, 2019 $12.31 $0.05 -4.11% 2,945.83 3.93%
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
58. Nov 30, 2023 $37.32 10.48% 4,567.80 8.92%
59. Dec 31, 2023 $42.57 14.07% 4,769.83 4.42%
Average (R): 3.37% 1.11%
Standard deviation: 14.65% 5.31%
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500)
t Date PriceFCX,t1 DividendFCX,t1 RFCX,t2 PriceS&P 500,t RS&P 500,t3
Jan 31, 2019 $11.64 2,704.10
1. Feb 28, 2019 $12.90 10.82% 2,784.49 2.97%
2. Mar 31, 2019 $12.89 -0.08% 2,834.40 1.79%
3. Apr 30, 2019 $12.31 $0.05 -4.11% 2,945.83 3.93%
4. May 31, 2019 $9.71 -21.12% 2,752.06 -6.58%
5. Jun 30, 2019 $11.61 19.57% 2,941.76 6.89%
6. Jul 31, 2019 $11.06 $0.05 -4.31% 2,980.38 1.31%
7. Aug 31, 2019 $9.19 -16.91% 2,926.46 -1.81%
8. Sep 30, 2019 $9.57 4.13% 2,976.74 1.72%
9. Oct 31, 2019 $9.82 $0.05 3.13% 3,037.56 2.04%
10. Nov 30, 2019 $11.38 15.89% 3,140.98 3.40%
11. Dec 31, 2019 $13.12 15.29% 3,230.78 2.86%
12. Jan 31, 2020 $11.10 $0.05 -15.02% 3,225.52 -0.16%
13. Feb 29, 2020 $9.96 -10.27% 2,954.22 -8.41%
14. Mar 31, 2020 $6.75 -32.23% 2,584.59 -12.51%
15. Apr 30, 2020 $8.83 30.81% 2,912.43 12.68%
16. May 31, 2020 $9.07 2.72% 3,044.31 4.53%
17. Jun 30, 2020 $11.57 27.56% 3,100.29 1.84%
18. Jul 31, 2020 $12.92 11.67% 3,271.12 5.51%
19. Aug 31, 2020 $15.61 20.82% 3,500.31 7.01%
20. Sep 30, 2020 $15.64 0.19% 3,363.00 -3.92%
21. Oct 31, 2020 $17.34 10.87% 3,269.96 -2.77%
22. Nov 30, 2020 $23.39 34.89% 3,621.63 10.75%
23. Dec 31, 2020 $26.02 11.24% 3,756.07 3.71%
24. Jan 31, 2021 $26.91 3.42% 3,714.24 -1.11%
25. Feb 28, 2021 $33.91 26.01% 3,811.15 2.61%
26. Mar 31, 2021 $32.93 -2.89% 3,972.89 4.24%
27. Apr 30, 2021 $37.71 $0.075 14.74% 4,181.17 5.24%
28. May 31, 2021 $42.72 13.29% 4,204.11 0.55%
29. Jun 30, 2021 $37.11 -13.13% 4,297.50 2.22%
30. Jul 31, 2021 $38.10 $0.075 2.87% 4,395.26 2.27%
31. Aug 31, 2021 $36.39 -4.49% 4,522.68 2.90%
32. Sep 30, 2021 $32.53 -10.61% 4,307.54 -4.76%
33. Oct 31, 2021 $37.72 $0.075 16.19% 4,605.38 6.91%
34. Nov 30, 2021 $37.08 -1.70% 4,567.00 -0.83%
35. Dec 31, 2021 $41.73 12.54% 4,766.18 4.36%
36. Jan 31, 2022 $37.22 $0.15 -10.45% 4,515.55 -5.26%
37. Feb 28, 2022 $46.95 26.14% 4,373.94 -3.14%
38. Mar 31, 2022 $49.74 5.94% 4,530.41 3.58%
39. Apr 30, 2022 $40.55 $0.15 -18.17% 4,131.93 -8.80%
40. May 31, 2022 $39.08 -3.63% 4,132.15 0.01%
41. Jun 30, 2022 $29.26 -25.13% 3,785.38 -8.39%
42. Jul 31, 2022 $31.55 $0.15 8.34% 4,130.29 9.11%
43. Aug 31, 2022 $29.60 -6.18% 3,955.00 -4.24%
44. Sep 30, 2022 $27.33 -7.67% 3,585.62 -9.34%
45. Oct 31, 2022 $31.69 $0.15 16.50% 3,871.98 7.99%
46. Nov 30, 2022 $39.80 25.59% 4,080.11 5.38%
47. Dec 31, 2022 $38.00 -4.52% 3,839.50 -5.90%
48. Jan 31, 2023 $44.62 $0.15 17.82% 4,076.60 6.18%
49. Feb 28, 2023 $40.97 -8.18% 3,970.15 -2.61%
50. Mar 31, 2023 $40.91 -0.15% 4,109.31 3.51%
51. Apr 30, 2023 $37.91 $0.15 -6.97% 4,169.48 1.46%
52. May 31, 2023 $34.34 -9.42% 4,179.83 0.25%
53. Jun 30, 2023 $40.00 16.48% 4,376.86 4.71%
54. Jul 31, 2023 $44.65 $0.15 12.00% 4,588.96 4.85%
55. Aug 31, 2023 $39.91 -10.62% 4,507.66 -1.77%
56. Sep 30, 2023 $37.29 -6.56% 4,288.05 -4.87%
57. Oct 31, 2023 $33.78 $0.15 -9.01% 4,193.80 -2.20%
58. Nov 30, 2023 $37.32 10.48% 4,567.80 8.92%
59. Dec 31, 2023 $42.57 14.07% 4,769.83 4.42%
Average (R): 3.37% 1.11%
Standard deviation: 14.65% 5.31%

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1 Data in US$ per share of common stock, adjusted for splits and stock dividends.

2 Rate of return on common stock of FCX during period t

3 Rate of return on S&P 500 (the market portfolio proxy) during period t


Variance and Covariance

Freeport-McMoRan Inc., calculation of variance and covariance of returns

Microsoft Excel
t Date RFCX,t RS&P 500,t (RFCX,tRFCX)2 (RS&P 500,tRS&P 500)2 (RFCX,tRFCX)×(RS&P 500,tRS&P 500)
1. Feb 28, 2019 10.82% 2.97% 55.65 3.49 13.93
2. Mar 31, 2019 -0.08% 1.79% 11.85 0.47 -2.36
3. Apr 30, 2019 -4.11% 3.93% 55.90 7.98 -21.13
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
58. Nov 30, 2023 10.48% 8.92% 50.62 61.03 55.58
59. Dec 31, 2023 14.07% 4.42% 114.54 11.00 35.50
Total (Σ): 12,455.34 1,634.30 3,383.06
t Date RFCX,t RS&P 500,t (RFCX,tRFCX)2 (RS&P 500,tRS&P 500)2 (RFCX,tRFCX)×(RS&P 500,tRS&P 500)
1. Feb 28, 2019 10.82% 2.97% 55.65 3.49 13.93
2. Mar 31, 2019 -0.08% 1.79% 11.85 0.47 -2.36
3. Apr 30, 2019 -4.11% 3.93% 55.90 7.98 -21.13
4. May 31, 2019 -21.12% -6.58% 599.57 59.04 188.14
5. Jun 30, 2019 19.57% 6.89% 262.52 33.49 93.77
6. Jul 31, 2019 -4.31% 1.31% 58.85 0.04 -1.59
7. Aug 31, 2019 -16.91% -1.81% 410.99 8.50 59.10
8. Sep 30, 2019 4.13% 1.72% 0.59 0.37 0.47
9. Oct 31, 2019 3.13% 2.04% 0.05 0.88 -0.22
10. Nov 30, 2019 15.89% 3.40% 156.77 5.28 28.78
11. Dec 31, 2019 15.29% 2.86% 142.20 3.07 20.91
12. Jan 31, 2020 -15.02% -0.16% 337.83 1.61 23.32
13. Feb 29, 2020 -10.27% -8.41% 185.92 90.57 129.77
14. Mar 31, 2020 -32.23% -12.51% 1,266.93 185.44 484.71
15. Apr 30, 2020 30.81% 12.68% 753.49 134.06 317.83
16. May 31, 2020 2.72% 4.53% 0.42 11.71 -2.21
17. Jun 30, 2020 27.56% 1.84% 585.56 0.54 17.74
18. Jul 31, 2020 11.67% 5.51% 68.94 19.40 36.57
19. Aug 31, 2020 20.82% 7.01% 304.69 34.82 103.00
20. Sep 30, 2020 0.19% -3.92% 10.07 25.29 15.96
21. Oct 31, 2020 10.87% -2.77% 56.32 15.00 -29.06
22. Nov 30, 2020 34.89% 10.75% 993.85 93.10 304.18
23. Dec 31, 2020 11.24% 3.71% 62.08 6.79 20.54
24. Jan 31, 2021 3.42% -1.11% 0.00 4.93 -0.12
25. Feb 28, 2021 26.01% 2.61% 512.91 2.26 34.05
26. Mar 31, 2021 -2.89% 4.24% 39.13 9.85 -19.63
27. Apr 30, 2021 14.74% 5.24% 129.47 17.11 47.07
28. May 31, 2021 13.29% 0.55% 98.42 0.31 -5.53
29. Jun 30, 2021 -13.13% 2.22% 272.15 1.24 -18.40
30. Jul 31, 2021 2.87% 2.27% 0.25 1.37 -0.58
31. Aug 31, 2021 -4.49% 2.90% 61.67 3.22 -14.08
32. Sep 30, 2021 -10.61% -4.76% 195.23 34.37 81.92
33. Oct 31, 2021 16.19% 6.91% 164.35 33.74 74.47
34. Nov 30, 2021 -1.70% -0.83% 25.62 3.76 9.82
35. Dec 31, 2021 12.54% 4.36% 84.19 10.60 29.87
36. Jan 31, 2022 -10.45% -5.26% 190.80 40.51 87.91
37. Feb 28, 2022 26.14% -3.14% 518.78 17.99 -96.62
38. Mar 31, 2022 5.94% 3.58% 6.64 6.11 6.37
39. Apr 30, 2022 -18.17% -8.80% 463.95 98.04 213.27
40. May 31, 2022 -3.63% 0.01% 48.86 1.21 7.69
41. Jun 30, 2022 -25.13% -8.39% 811.85 90.21 270.62
42. Jul 31, 2022 8.34% 9.11% 24.74 64.09 39.82
43. Aug 31, 2022 -6.18% -4.24% 91.12 28.62 51.07
44. Sep 30, 2022 -7.67% -9.34% 121.75 109.11 115.25
45. Oct 31, 2022 16.50% 7.99% 172.58 47.34 90.39
46. Nov 30, 2022 25.59% 5.38% 494.02 18.23 94.90
47. Dec 31, 2022 -4.52% -5.90% 62.21 49.04 55.24
48. Jan 31, 2023 17.82% 6.18% 208.82 25.70 73.26
49. Feb 28, 2023 -8.18% -2.61% 133.29 13.82 42.91
50. Mar 31, 2023 -0.15% 3.51% 12.33 5.76 -8.43
51. Apr 30, 2023 -6.97% 1.46% 106.74 0.13 -3.70
52. May 31, 2023 -9.42% 0.25% 163.38 0.74 10.96
53. Jun 30, 2023 16.48% 4.71% 172.06 13.02 47.33
54. Jul 31, 2023 12.00% 4.85% 74.56 13.99 32.30
55. Aug 31, 2023 -10.62% -1.77% 195.47 8.28 40.23
56. Sep 30, 2023 -6.56% -4.87% 98.60 35.73 59.36
57. Oct 31, 2023 -9.01% -2.20% 153.15 10.92 40.89
58. Nov 30, 2023 10.48% 8.92% 50.62 61.03 55.58
59. Dec 31, 2023 14.07% 4.42% 114.54 11.00 35.50
Total (Σ): 12,455.34 1,634.30 3,383.06

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VarianceFCX = Σ(RFCX,tRFCX)2 ÷ (59 – 1)
= 12,455.34 ÷ (59 – 1)
= 214.75

VarianceS&P 500 = Σ(RS&P 500,tRS&P 500)2 ÷ (59 – 1)
= 1,634.30 ÷ (59 – 1)
= 28.18

CovarianceFCX, S&P 500 = Σ(RFCX,tRFCX)×(RS&P 500,tRS&P 500) ÷ (59 – 1)
= 3,383.06 ÷ (59 – 1)
= 58.33


Systematic Risk (β) Estimation

Microsoft Excel
VarianceFCX 214.75
VarianceS&P 500 28.18
CovarianceFCX, S&P 500 58.33
Correlation coefficientFCX, S&P 5001 0.75
βFCX2 2.07
αFCX3 1.08%

Calculations

1 Correlation coefficientFCX, S&P 500
= CovarianceFCX, S&P 500 ÷ (Standard deviationFCX × Standard deviationS&P 500)
= 58.33 ÷ (14.65% × 5.31%)
= 0.75

2 βFCX
= CovarianceFCX, S&P 500 ÷ VarianceS&P 500
= 58.33 ÷ 28.18
= 2.07

3 αFCX
= AverageFCX – βFCX × AverageS&P 500
= 3.37%2.07 × 1.11%
= 1.08%


Expected Rate of Return

Microsoft Excel
Assumptions
Rate of return on LT Treasury Composite1 RF 4.68%
Expected rate of return on market portfolio2 E(RM) 13.78%
Systematic risk (β) of Freeport-McMoRan Inc. common stock βFCX 2.07
 
Expected rate of return on Freeport-McMoRan Inc. common stock3 E(RFCX) 23.53%

1 Unweighted average of bid yields on all outstanding fixed-coupon U.S. Treasury bonds neither due or callable in less than 10 years (risk-free rate of return proxy).

2 See details »

3 E(RFCX) = RF + βFCX [E(RM) – RF]
= 4.68% + 2.07 [13.78%4.68%]
= 23.53%