Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
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- Common-Size Balance Sheet: Liabilities and Stockholders’ Equity
- Analysis of Short-term (Operating) Activity Ratios
- Enterprise Value (EV)
- Enterprise Value to FCFF (EV/FCFF)
- Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
- Selected Financial Data since 2005
- Return on Assets (ROA) since 2005
- Price to Book Value (P/BV) since 2005
- Price to Sales (P/S) since 2005
- Analysis of Revenues
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Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 163.05% per annum.
- CSGP price at the close of July 26, 2023 was $84.38 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $4.68 (5.26%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 54.37% per annum.
- CSGP price at the close of July 26, 2023 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $4.35 (4.91%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CSGP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date:
End date:
a =
b =
s =
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=
March 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
July 25, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 163.05% per annum.
- CSGP price at the close of July 26, 2023 was $84.38 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $4.68 (5.26%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date:
End date:
a =
b =
s =
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=
June 21, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
July 25, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 54.37% per annum.
- CSGP price at the close of July 26, 2023 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $4.35 (4.91%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Check current CSGP price trends.
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