Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 163.05% per annum.
- CSGP price at the close of July 26, 2023 was $84.38 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $4.68 (5.26%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 54.37% per annum.
- CSGP price at the close of July 26, 2023 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $4.35 (4.91%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CSGP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 13, 2023
End date: July 25, 2023
a = -0.3052
b = 0.0026
s = 0.0206
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0026) – 1
= 163.05%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0206) – 1
= 8.59%
March 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,163)
= Exp(a + b × X1,163 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,690 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.3052 + 0.0026 × 1,690 + 2 × 0.0206)
= Exp(4.2140)
= $67.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,163)
= Exp(a + b × X1,163 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,690 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.3052 + 0.0026 × 1,690 – 2 × 0.0206)
= Exp(4.1316)
= $62.28
July 25, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.3052 + 0.0026 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0206)
= Exp(4.5691)
= $96.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.3052 + 0.0026 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0206)
= Exp(4.4867)
= $88.83
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 163.05% per annum.
- CSGP price at the close of July 26, 2023 was $84.38 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $4.68 (5.26%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 21, 2023
End date: July 25, 2023
a = 2.3399
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0125
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 54.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0125) – 1
= 5.13%
June 21, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,232)
= Exp(a + b × X1,232 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,790 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3399 + 0.0012 × 1,790 + 2 × 0.0125)
= Exp(4.4941)
= $89.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,232)
= Exp(a + b × X1,232 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,790 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3399 + 0.0012 × 1,790 – 2 × 0.0125)
= Exp(4.4440)
= $85.12
July 25, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3399 + 0.0012 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0125)
= Exp(4.5345)
= $93.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3399 + 0.0012 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0125)
= Exp(4.4845)
= $88.63
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 54.37% per annum.
- CSGP price at the close of July 26, 2023 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $4.35 (4.91%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
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