Stock Analysis on Net

First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLR)

$24.99

Present Value of Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF)

Microsoft Excel

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Intrinsic Stock Value (Valuation Summary)

First Solar Inc., free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) forecast

US$ in thousands, except per share data

Microsoft Excel
Year Value FCFFt or Terminal value (TVt) Calculation Present value at
01 FCFF0
1 FCFF1 = × (1 + )
2 FCFF2 = × (1 + )
3 FCFF3 = × (1 + )
4 FCFF4 = × (1 + )
5 FCFF5 = × (1 + )
5 Terminal value (TV5) = × (1 + ) ÷ ()
Intrinsic value of First Solar Inc. capital
Less: Debt and finance lease liabilities (fair value)
Intrinsic value of First Solar Inc. common stock
 
Intrinsic value of First Solar Inc. common stock (per share)
Current share price

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31).

Disclaimer!
Valuation is based on standard assumptions. There may exist specific factors relevant to stock value and omitted here. In such a case, the real stock value may differ significantly form the estimated. If you want to use the estimated intrinsic stock value in investment decision making process, do so at your own risk.


Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

First Solar Inc., cost of capital

Microsoft Excel
Value1 Weight Required rate of return2 Calculation
Equity (fair value)
Debt and finance lease liabilities (fair value) = × (1 – )

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31).

1 US$ in thousands

   Equity (fair value) = No. shares of common stock outstanding × Current share price
= ×
=

   Debt and finance lease liabilities (fair value). See details »

2 Required rate of return on equity is estimated by using CAPM. See details »

   Required rate of return on debt. See details »

   Required rate of return on debt is after tax.

   Estimated (average) effective income tax rate
= ( + + + + ) ÷ 5
=

WACC =


FCFF Growth Rate (g)

FCFF growth rate (g) implied by PRAT model

First Solar Inc., PRAT model

Microsoft Excel
Average Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019
Selected Financial Data (US$ in thousands)
Interest expense, net
Net income (loss)
 
Effective income tax rate (EITR)1
 
Interest expense, net, after tax2
Interest expense (after tax) and dividends
 
EBIT(1 – EITR)3
 
Current portion of debt
Finance lease liabilities, current
Long-term debt, noncurrent portion
Finance lease liabilities, noncurrent
Stockholders’ equity
Total capital
Financial Ratios
Retention rate (RR)4
Return on invested capital (ROIC)5
Averages
RR
ROIC
 
FCFF growth rate (g)6

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).

1 See details »

2023 Calculations

2 Interest expense, net, after tax = Interest expense, net × (1 – EITR)
= × (1 – )
=

3 EBIT(1 – EITR) = Net income (loss) + Interest expense, net, after tax
= +
=

4 RR = [EBIT(1 – EITR) – Interest expense (after tax) and dividends] ÷ EBIT(1 – EITR)
= [] ÷
=

5 ROIC = 100 × EBIT(1 – EITR) ÷ Total capital
= 100 × ÷
=

6 g = RR × ROIC
= ×
=


FCFF growth rate (g) forecast

First Solar Inc., H-model

Microsoft Excel
Year Value gt
1 g1
2 g2
3 g3
4 g4
5 and thereafter g5

where:
g1 is implied by PRAT model
g5 is implied by single-stage model
g2, g3 and g4 are calculated using linear interpoltion between g1 and g5

Calculations

g2 = g1 + (g5g1) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= + () × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
=

g3 = g1 + (g5g1) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= + () × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
=

g4 = g1 + (g5g1) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= + () × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
=