Stock Analysis on Net

Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO)

Present Value of Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF)

Microsoft Excel

Intrinsic Stock Value (Valuation Summary)

Broadcom Inc., free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) forecast

US$ in millions, except per share data

Microsoft Excel
Year Value FCFFt or Terminal value (TVt) Calculation Present value at 15.37%
01 FCFF0 21,436
1 FCFF1 21,159 = 21,436 × (1 + -1.29%) 18,339
2 FCFF2 21,632 = 21,159 × (1 + 2.24%) 16,251
3 FCFF3 22,880 = 21,632 × (1 + 5.77%) 14,898
4 FCFF4 25,008 = 22,880 × (1 + 9.30%) 14,114
5 FCFF5 28,216 = 25,008 × (1 + 12.83%) 13,802
5 Terminal value (TV5) 1,250,787 = 28,216 × (1 + 12.83%) ÷ (15.37%12.83%) 611,847
Intrinsic value of Broadcom Inc. capital 689,252
Less: 8.00% Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock, Series A, $0.001 par value (fair value) 0
Less: Debt (fair value) 65,022
Intrinsic value of Broadcom Inc. common stock 624,230
 
Intrinsic value of Broadcom Inc. common stock (per share) $132.76
Current share price $188.26

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-11-03).

Disclaimer!
Valuation is based on standard assumptions. There may exist specific factors relevant to stock value and omitted here. In such a case, the real stock value may differ significantly form the estimated. If you want to use the estimated intrinsic stock value in investment decision making process, do so at your own risk.


Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

Broadcom Inc., cost of capital

Microsoft Excel
Value1 Weight Required rate of return2 Calculation
Equity (fair value) 885,189 0.93 16.21%
8.00% Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock, Series A, $0.001 par value (fair value) 0 0.00 0.00%
Debt (fair value) 65,022 0.07 4.04% = 4.80% × (1 – 15.73%)

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-11-03).

1 US$ in millions

   Equity (fair value) = No. shares of common stock outstanding × Current share price
= 4,701,948,717 × $188.26
= $885,188,865,462.42

   Debt (fair value). See details »

2 Required rate of return on equity is estimated by using CAPM. See details »

   Required rate of return on debt. See details »

   Required rate of return on debt is after tax.

   Estimated (average) effective income tax rate
= (37.80% + 6.70% + 7.50% + 0.40% + 21.00% + 21.00%) ÷ 6
= 15.73%

WACC = 15.37%


FCFF Growth Rate (g)

FCFF growth rate (g) implied by PRAT model

Broadcom Inc., PRAT model

Microsoft Excel
Average Nov 3, 2024 Oct 29, 2023 Oct 30, 2022 Oct 31, 2021 Nov 1, 2020 Nov 3, 2019
Selected Financial Data (US$ in millions)
Interest expense 3,953 1,622 1,737 1,885 1,777 1,444
Loss from discontinued operations, net of income taxes (273) (1) (12)
Net income 5,895 14,082 11,495 6,736 2,960 2,724
 
Effective income tax rate (EITR)1 37.80% 6.70% 7.50% 0.40% 21.00% 21.00%
 
Interest expense, after tax2 2,459 1,513 1,607 1,877 1,404 1,141
Add: Dividends to preferred stockholders 272 299 297 29
Add: Dividends to common stockholders 9,814 7,645 6,733 5,913 5,235 4,235
Interest expense (after tax) and dividends 12,273 9,158 8,612 8,089 6,936 5,405
 
EBIT(1 – EITR)3 8,627 15,595 13,102 8,613 4,365 3,877
 
Current portion of long-term debt 1,271 1,608 440 290 827 2,787
Long-term debt, excluding current portion 66,295 37,621 39,075 39,440 40,235 30,011
Stockholders’ equity 67,678 23,988 22,709 24,962 23,874 24,941
Total capital 135,244 63,217 62,224 64,692 64,936 57,739
Financial Ratios
Retention rate (RR)4 -0.42 0.41 0.34 0.06 -0.59 -0.39
Return on invested capital (ROIC)5 6.38% 24.67% 21.06% 13.31% 6.72% 6.71%
Averages
RR -0.10
ROIC 13.14%
 
FCFF growth rate (g)6 -1.29%

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-11-03), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-10-29), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-10-30), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-10-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-11-01), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-11-03).

1 See details »

2024 Calculations

2 Interest expense, after tax = Interest expense × (1 – EITR)
= 3,953 × (1 – 37.80%)
= 2,459

3 EBIT(1 – EITR) = Net income – Loss from discontinued operations, net of income taxes + Interest expense, after tax
= 5,895-273 + 2,459
= 8,627

4 RR = [EBIT(1 – EITR) – Interest expense (after tax) and dividends] ÷ EBIT(1 – EITR)
= [8,62712,273] ÷ 8,627
= -0.42

5 ROIC = 100 × EBIT(1 – EITR) ÷ Total capital
= 100 × 8,627 ÷ 135,244
= 6.38%

6 g = RR × ROIC
= -0.10 × 13.14%
= -1.29%


FCFF growth rate (g) implied by single-stage model

g = 100 × (Total capital, fair value0 × WACC – FCFF0) ÷ (Total capital, fair value0 + FCFF0)
= 100 × (950,211 × 15.37%21,436) ÷ (950,211 + 21,436)
= 12.83%

where:

Total capital, fair value0 = current fair value of Broadcom Inc. debt and equity (US$ in millions)
FCFF0 = the last year Broadcom Inc. free cash flow to the firm (US$ in millions)
WACC = weighted average cost of Broadcom Inc. capital


FCFF growth rate (g) forecast

Broadcom Inc., H-model

Microsoft Excel
Year Value gt
1 g1 -1.29%
2 g2 2.24%
3 g3 5.77%
4 g4 9.30%
5 and thereafter g5 12.83%

where:
g1 is implied by PRAT model
g5 is implied by single-stage model
g2, g3 and g4 are calculated using linear interpolation between g1 and g5

Calculations

g2 = g1 + (g5g1) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= -1.29% + (12.83%-1.29%) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 2.24%

g3 = g1 + (g5g1) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= -1.29% + (12.83%-1.29%) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 5.77%

g4 = g1 + (g5g1) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= -1.29% + (12.83%-1.29%) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 9.30%