Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 43.37% per annum.
- FSLR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $187.36 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 82.50% per annum.
- FSLR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FSLR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 22, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 8.1299
b = -0.0016
s = 0.0757
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -43.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0757) – 1
= 35.36%
May 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,132)
= Exp(a + b × X1,132 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,645 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.1299 + -0.0016 × 1,645 + 2 × 0.0757)
= Exp(5.7185)
= $304.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,132)
= Exp(a + b × X1,132 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,645 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.1299 + -0.0016 × 1,645 – 2 × 0.0757)
= Exp(5.4158)
= $224.92
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.1299 + -0.0016 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0757)
= Exp(5.4365)
= $229.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.1299 + -0.0016 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0757)
= Exp(5.1338)
= $169.66
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 43.37% per annum.
- FSLR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $187.36 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 17, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 13.9277
b = -0.0048
s = 0.0456
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0048) – 1
= -82.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0456) – 1
= 20.00%
September 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,763 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.9277 + -0.0048 × 1,763 + 2 × 0.0456)
= Exp(5.6008)
= $270.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,763 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.9277 + -0.0048 × 1,763 – 2 × 0.0456)
= Exp(5.4185)
= $225.54
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.9277 + -0.0048 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0456)
= Exp(5.3000)
= $200.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.9277 + -0.0048 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0456)
= Exp(5.1177)
= $166.95
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 82.50% per annum.
- FSLR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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