Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 81.83% per annum.
- FDX price at the close of November 13, 2026 was $324.14 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $24.37 (6.99%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6.62% per annum.
- FDX price at the close of November 13, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FDX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 3, 2025
End date: September 1, 2026
a = 3.0049
b = 0.0016
s = 0.0696
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 81.83%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0696) – 1
= 32.10%
April 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y848)
= Exp(a + b × X848 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,235 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0049 + 0.0016 × 1,235 + 2 × 0.0696)
= Exp(5.1672)
= $175.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y848)
= Exp(a + b × X848 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,235 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0049 + 0.0016 × 1,235 – 2 × 0.0696)
= Exp(4.8888)
= $132.80
September 1, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,202)
= Exp(a + b × X1,202 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,751 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0049 + 0.0016 × 1,751 + 2 × 0.0696)
= Exp(6.0124)
= $408.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,202)
= Exp(a + b × X1,202 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,751 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0049 + 0.0016 × 1,751 – 2 × 0.0696)
= Exp(5.7341)
= $309.23
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 81.83% per annum.
- FDX price at the close of November 13, 2026 was $324.14 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $24.37 (6.99%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 3, 2026
End date: November 13, 2026
a = 5.4303
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0473
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 6.62%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0473) – 1
= 20.83%
February 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,057)
= Exp(a + b × X1,057 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,541 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4303 + 0.0002 × 1,541 + 2 × 0.0473)
= Exp(5.7955)
= $328.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,057)
= Exp(a + b × X1,057 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,541 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4303 + 0.0002 × 1,541 – 2 × 0.0473)
= Exp(5.6063)
= $272.12
November 13, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4303 + 0.0002 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0473)
= Exp(5.8451)
= $345.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4303 + 0.0002 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0473)
= Exp(5.6560)
= $285.99
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6.62% per annum.
- FDX price at the close of November 13, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.