Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 34.12% per annum.
- FDX price at the close of August 14, 2026 was $334.64 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $19.85 (6.30%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,057.30% per annum.
- FDX price at the close of August 14, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FDX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 1, 2026
End date: August 5, 2026
a = 6.2299
b = -0.0011
s = 0.0172
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -34.12%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0172) – 1
= 7.11%
June 1, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y255)
= Exp(a + b × X255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 374 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2299 + -0.0011 × 374 + 2 × 0.0172)
= Exp(5.8365)
= $342.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y255)
= Exp(a + b × X255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 374 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2299 + -0.0011 × 374 – 2 × 0.0172)
= Exp(5.7679)
= $319.85
August 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y300)
= Exp(a + b × X300 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 439 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2299 + -0.0011 × 439 + 2 × 0.0172)
= Exp(5.7622)
= $318.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y300)
= Exp(a + b × X300 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 439 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2299 + -0.0011 × 439 – 2 × 0.0172)
= Exp(5.6935)
= $296.94
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 34.12% per annum.
- FDX price at the close of August 14, 2026 was $334.64 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $19.85 (6.30%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 31, 2026
End date: August 14, 2026
a = 2.8054
b = 0.0067
s = 0.0111
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0067) – 1
= 1,057.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0111) – 1
= 4.52%
July 31, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y297)
= Exp(a + b × X297 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 434 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8054 + 0.0067 × 434 + 2 × 0.0111)
= Exp(5.7391)
= $310.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y297)
= Exp(a + b × X297 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 434 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8054 + 0.0067 × 434 – 2 × 0.0111)
= Exp(5.6949)
= $297.33
August 14, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y307)
= Exp(a + b × X307 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 448 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8054 + 0.0067 × 448 + 2 × 0.0111)
= Exp(5.8330)
= $341.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y307)
= Exp(a + b × X307 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 448 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8054 + 0.0067 × 448 – 2 × 0.0111)
= Exp(5.7888)
= $326.61
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,057.30% per annum.
- FDX price at the close of August 14, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.