Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.36% per annum.
- FDX price at the close of October 14, 2026 was $291.28 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 65.25% per annum.
- FDX price at the close of October 14, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FDX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 22, 2026
End date: October 14, 2026
a = 6.0067
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0352
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -23.36%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0352) – 1
= 15.11%
May 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y193)
= Exp(a + b × X193 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 280 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0067 + -0.0007 × 280 + 2 × 0.0352)
= Exp(5.8729)
= $355.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y193)
= Exp(a + b × X193 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 280 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0067 + -0.0007 × 280 – 2 × 0.0352)
= Exp(5.7322)
= $308.64
October 14, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y292)
= Exp(a + b × X292 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 425 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0067 + -0.0007 × 425 + 2 × 0.0352)
= Exp(5.7672)
= $319.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y292)
= Exp(a + b × X292 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 425 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0067 + -0.0007 × 425 – 2 × 0.0352)
= Exp(5.6265)
= $277.68
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.36% per annum.
- FDX price at the close of October 14, 2026 was $291.28 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 13, 2026
End date: October 14, 2026
a = 6.8711
b = -0.0029
s = 0.0209
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0029) – 1
= -65.25%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0209) – 1
= 8.74%
August 13, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y249)
= Exp(a + b × X249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 363 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8711 + -0.0029 × 363 + 2 × 0.0209)
= Exp(5.8617)
= $351.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y249)
= Exp(a + b × X249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 363 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8711 + -0.0029 × 363 – 2 × 0.0209)
= Exp(5.7780)
= $323.11
October 14, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y292)
= Exp(a + b × X292 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 425 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8711 + -0.0029 × 425 + 2 × 0.0209)
= Exp(5.6822)
= $293.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y292)
= Exp(a + b × X292 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 425 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8711 + -0.0029 × 425 – 2 × 0.0209)
= Exp(5.5984)
= $270.01
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 65.25% per annum.
- FDX price at the close of October 14, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.