Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 74.57% per annum.
- UBER price at the close of March 28, 2025 was $72.75 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $14.05 (16.19%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 0.80% per annum.
- UBER price at the close of March 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UBER price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 4, 2022
End date: October 30, 2024
a = 1.9144
b = 0.0015
s = 0.1176
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 74.57%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1176) – 1
= 60.03%
May 4, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y529)
= Exp(a + b × X529 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 765 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9144 + 0.0015 × 765 + 2 × 0.1176)
= Exp(3.3173)
= $27.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y529)
= Exp(a + b × X529 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 765 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9144 + 0.0015 × 765 – 2 × 0.1176)
= Exp(2.8471)
= $17.24
October 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,155)
= Exp(a + b × X1,155 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,675 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9144 + 0.0015 × 1,675 + 2 × 0.1176)
= Exp(4.7064)
= $110.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,155)
= Exp(a + b × X1,155 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,675 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9144 + 0.0015 × 1,675 – 2 × 0.1176)
= Exp(4.2362)
= $69.14
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 74.57% per annum.
- UBER price at the close of March 28, 2025 was $72.75 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $14.05 (16.19%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 18, 2024
End date: March 28, 2025
a = 4.3006
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0772
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.80%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0772) – 1
= 36.18%
January 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y957)
= Exp(a + b × X957 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,389 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3006 + 0.0000 × 1,389 + 2 × 0.0772)
= Exp(4.4244)
= $83.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y957)
= Exp(a + b × X957 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,389 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3006 + 0.0000 × 1,389 – 2 × 0.0772)
= Exp(4.1155)
= $61.29
March 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3006 + 0.0000 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0772)
= Exp(4.4148)
= $82.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3006 + 0.0000 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0772)
= Exp(4.1059)
= $60.70
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 0.80% per annum.
- UBER price at the close of March 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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