Stock Analysis on Net

Uber Technologies Inc. (NYSE:UBER)

Stock Price Trends


Summary

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 74.57% per annum.
  • UBER price at the close of March 28, 2025 was $72.75 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $14.05 (16.19%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 0.80% per annum.
  • UBER price at the close of March 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UBER price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 4, 2022
End date: October 30, 2024

a = 1.9144

b = 0.0015

s = 0.1176

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 74.57%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1176) – 1
= 60.03%

May 4, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y529)
= Exp(a + b × X529 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 765 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9144 + 0.0015 × 765 + 2 × 0.1176)
= Exp(3.3173)
= $27.59

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y529)
= Exp(a + b × X529 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 765 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9144 + 0.0015 × 765 – 2 × 0.1176)
= Exp(2.8471)
= $17.24

October 30, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,155)
= Exp(a + b × X1,155 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,675 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9144 + 0.0015 × 1,675 + 2 × 0.1176)
= Exp(4.7064)
= $110.65

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,155)
= Exp(a + b × X1,155 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,675 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9144 + 0.0015 × 1,675 – 2 × 0.1176)
= Exp(4.2362)
= $69.14

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 74.57% per annum.
  • UBER price at the close of March 28, 2025 was $72.75 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $14.05 (16.19%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 18, 2024
End date: March 28, 2025

a = 4.3006

b = 0.0000

s = 0.0772

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.80%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0772) – 1
= 36.18%

January 18, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y957)
= Exp(a + b × X957 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,389 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3006 + 0.0000 × 1,389 + 2 × 0.0772)
= Exp(4.4244)
= $83.46

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y957)
= Exp(a + b × X957 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,389 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3006 + 0.0000 × 1,389 – 2 × 0.0772)
= Exp(4.1155)
= $61.29

March 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3006 + 0.0000 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0772)
= Exp(4.4148)
= $82.66

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3006 + 0.0000 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0772)
= Exp(4.1059)
= $60.70

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 0.80% per annum.
  • UBER price at the close of March 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
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