Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 74.88% per annum.
- UBER price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $69.13 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.35 (3.29%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1.34% per annum.
- UBER price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UBER price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 6, 2022
End date: October 30, 2024
a = 1.7071
b = 0.0015
s = 0.1170
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 74.88%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1170) – 1
= 59.68%
May 6, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y619)
= Exp(a + b × X619 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 898 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7071 + 0.0015 × 898 + 2 × 0.1170)
= Exp(3.3163)
= $27.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y619)
= Exp(a + b × X619 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 898 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7071 + 0.0015 × 898 – 2 × 0.1170)
= Exp(2.8483)
= $17.26
October 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7071 + 0.0015 × 1,806 + 2 × 0.1170)
= Exp(4.7068)
= $110.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7071 + 0.0015 × 1,806 – 2 × 0.1170)
= Exp(4.2388)
= $69.32
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 74.88% per annum.
- UBER price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $69.13 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.35 (3.29%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 25, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 4.2152
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0712
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 1.34%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0712) – 1
= 32.97%
January 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,050)
= Exp(a + b × X1,050 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,527 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2152 + 0.0000 × 1,527 + 2 × 0.0712)
= Exp(4.4136)
= $82.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,050)
= Exp(a + b × X1,050 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,527 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2152 + 0.0000 × 1,527 – 2 × 0.0712)
= Exp(4.1286)
= $62.09
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2152 + 0.0000 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0712)
= Exp(4.4245)
= $83.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2152 + 0.0000 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0712)
= Exp(4.1395)
= $62.77
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1.34% per annum.
- UBER price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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